Karolina Muchova vs Ekaterina AlexandrovaBrisbane Round of 16

Brisbane · WTA · Round of 16
#9WTA
2066ELO
2034Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 4 January 2026
hard
#19WTA
1844ELO
1800Hard ELO
$761kYTD
$10MCAREER
31 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWLL
Muchova K.
6-4 7-5
Alexandrova E.
Muchova K.
672
Alexandrova E.
450

Karolina Muchova defeated Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-4 7-5 in the Brisbane round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Karolina Muchova came in ranked #9. Karolina Muchova narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-01-27LinzSFhardEkaterina Alexandrova6-0 6-4
2021-04-19StuttgartR32clayEkaterina Alexandrova4-6 6-2 6-3
2019-10-14MoscowQFhardKarolina Muchova6-3 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Muchova K.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Alexandrova E.

Alexandrova E.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Muchova K.

Serve advantage — Muchova K.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Muchova K.Alexandrova E.
70
Serve
52
44
Return
42

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
58%
Return points won·Even
43%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
51%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.0
4.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.1
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
95
65
Break points saved·Even
98
94
Break points won·Even
94
98
Deciding sets·Dominant
98
61
Tiebreaks·Dominant
99
29

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 76 days (−1.2)
4.2
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 64 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
8.0+235 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.0Hard Elo 1800
7.8Overall Elo 2066
ELO gap
2.2Overall Elo 1844
0.0
H2H
10.0
5.9
Surface form
5.5
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
Country comfort
4.8
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
60
88

Muchova K.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 84 games (7d) · Alexandrova E.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw