Diana Shnaider vs Karolina MuchovaNingbo Round of 16

Ningbo · WTA · Round of 16
#15WTA
1891ELO
1833Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$6.1MCAREER
22 yrs · 170 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLWWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 13 October 2025
hard
#9WTA
2066ELO
2034Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
Shnaider D.
2-6 6-1 6-2
Muchova K.
Shnaider D.
2662
Muchova K.
6121

Diana Shnaider defeated Karolina Muchova 2-6 6-1 6-2 in the Ningbo round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Karolina Muchova came in ranked #9, defending last year's semi-final.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Shnaider D.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Muchova K.

Muchova K.serving80% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Shnaider D.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Shnaider D.Muchova K.
41
Serve
70
37
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
50%
Service points won·Even
58%
61%
Return points won·Even
43%
42%
Break points saved·Even
58%
61%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.6
3.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.4
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (70 vs 61). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
93
95
Break points saved·Even
94
98
Break points won·Slight edge
99
94
Deciding sets·Slight edge
91
98
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
91
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
2.3Hard Elo 1833
Surface ELO
7.7+201 Hard Elo edge
2.4Overall Elo 1891
ELO gap
7.6Overall Elo 2066
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
4.7
Surface form
6.0
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
9.1
Minutes 14d
7.5
3-set count
7.0
8.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
8.5

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
93
51

Shnaider D.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Muchova K.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 113 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
34°CDrizzle
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 47%