Xiyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka — Bad Homburg Semi-final

Bad Homburg · WTA · Semi-final

CHN

Xiyu Wang

#86WTA

1749ELO

1572Grass ELO

25 yrs · 182 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

WLWWWLWWWW

—

Sets

Friday, 26 June 2026 · 13:00

grass

JPN

Naomi Osaka

#15WTA

1972ELO

1741Grass ELO

$1.0MYTD

$26MCAREER

28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWLWWWLWW

Wang X.

Osaka N.

Xiyu Wang faces Naomi Osaka in the Bad Homburg semi-final on grass. Naomi Osaka holds the paper edge — ranked #15, defending last year's round of 16, a roughly 170-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC

Wang X.16%

Osaka N.84%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Osaka N. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Xiyu Wang comes in with 1 days of rest and 177 games in 14d, vs Naomi Osaka's 2 and 35.
Under pressure: In the tight moments, Naomi Osaka has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 91 vs 61).
Last match: Naomi Osaka dropped just 4 games past Ekaterina Alexandrova.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Wang X.

4.9

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Osaka N.

6.4

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

2.9Grass Elo 1572

Surface ELO

7.1+170 Grass Elo edge

3.1Overall Elo 1749

ELO gap

6.9Overall Elo 1972

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

5.75 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

7.57 of last 10 on grass

Win streak

7.03-match win streak

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Wang X.Stable

Osaka N.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 7 matches

Statistics

This season

Wang X.Osaka N.

1st serve in·Clear edge

76%

62%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

61%

70%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

53%

48%

Service points won·Even

60%

61%

Return points won·Clear edge

54%

41%

Break points saved·Even

63%

65%

Aces / match·Dominant

0.4

6.4

Double faults / match·Clear edge

1.3

2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 7). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Wang X.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Osaka N.

Osaka N.serving65% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Wang X.

Serve advantage — Wang X.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Wang X.Osaka N.

Clutch Rating·Dominant

Break points saved·Slight edge

Break points won·Slight edge

Deciding sets·Dominant

Tiebreaks·Dominant

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Wang X.Osaka N.

Freshness·Dominant

Wang X.: 1 day rest · 8 matches, 142 games (7d) · Osaka N.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 35 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Fastbig serves, short points

SlowFast

Weather forecast

34°CPartly cloudy

Wind 4 km/hHumidity 37%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.