Karolina Muchova vs Coco Gauff — Wimbledon Semi-final

Wimbledon · WTA · Semi-final
Karolina Muchova
CZE
Karolina Muchova
#9WTA
2066ELO
1852Grass ELO
$2.0MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWWWWWL
—
Sets
Thursday, 9 July 2026 ·
grass
Coco Gauff
USA
Coco Gauff
#7WTA
2071ELO
1823Grass ELO
$2.9MYTD
$33MCAREER
22 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWLLWWL
Muchova K.
vs
Gauff C.

Karolina Muchova faces Coco Gauff in the Wimbledon semi-final on grass. Coco Gauff is the paper favourite — ranked #7, leading the head-to-head 6–1, defending last year's round of 128 — but Karolina Muchova arrives in form, winning all 6 of their last grass matches to Coco Gauff's 5.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC
Muchova K.58%
Gauff C.42%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Muchova K. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Muchova K.
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Gauff C.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.4+29 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Grass Elo 1823
4.9Overall Elo 2066
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 2071
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
9.49 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.96 of last 10 on grass
10.09-match win streak
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
6.1Won 68% in GBR (22)
Country comfort
6.3Won 71% in GBR (28)
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Heat performance
7.0Plays well in heat

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Muchova K.Stable
Gauff C.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 18 matches

Statistics

This season
Muchova K.Gauff C.
1st serve in·Even
66%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
49%
38%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
57%
Return points won·Even
43%
47%
Break points saved·Even
60%
56%
Aces / match·Even
3.2
3.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.1
7.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Muchova K.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Gauff C.

Gauff C.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Muchova K.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Muchova K.Gauff C.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
94
99
Break points saved·Even
98
96
Break points won·Slight edge
94
100
Deciding sets·Even
98
100
Tiebreaks·Even
99
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Muchova K.Gauff C.
Freshness·Even
61
60

Muchova K.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 71 games (7d) · Gauff C.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 90 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
29°CClear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 38%

Head to head

1–6
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-13StuttgartQFclayKarolina Muchova6-3 5-7 6-3
2026-03-17MiamiSFhardCoco Gauff6-1 6-1
2026-01-19Australian OpenR16hardCoco Gauff6-1 3-6 6-3
2024-12-27United CupSFhardCoco Gauff6-1 6-4
2024-09-25BeijingFhardCoco Gauff6-1 6-3
2023-08-28US OpenSFhardCoco Gauff6-4 7-5
2023-08-14CincinnatiFhardCoco Gauff6-3 6-4
View full head-to-head →
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kostovic T.
6-26-3
Oliynykova O.
Kessler M.
0-60-6
Ostapenko J.
Dart H.
6-33-66-4
Ruzic A.
Semenistaja D.
6-33-66-3
Fernandez L.[22]
Tjen J.
1-66-73
Xu M.
Kasatkina D.
2-66-32-6
Gasanova A.
Arango E.
6-36-1
Jacquemot E.
Osaka N.[14]
1-65-7
Muchova K.[10]
Zakharova A.
6-36-2
Andreescu B.
Zhang S.
6-736-76
Parks A.
Dudeney A.
6-36-3
Sawangkaew M.
Chwalinska M.[20]
2-67-56-2
Siniakova K.[32]
Zheng Q.
6-46-4
Stearns P.
Bartunkova N.
4-66-35-7
Krejcikova B.
Klugman H.
6-16-4
Linette M.
Andreeva M.[5]
5-74-6
Pegula J.[4]
Vidmanova D.
7-56-3
Sorribes Tormo S.
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
6-26-3
Yastremska D.
Ito A.
7-614-67-5
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Potapova A.[27]
6-26-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Udvardy P.
6-46-2
Tararudee L.
Tagger L.
7-635-76-4
Putintseva Y.
Maria T.
4-64-6
J. Cristian
Jovic I.[16]
6-710-6
Bencic B.[11]
Stojsavljevic M.
6-26-1
Wang X.
Cocciaretto E.
6-32-66-2
Jones F.
Parry D.
4-64-6
Frech M.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-754-6
Li A.[28]
Sonmez Z.
5-76-14-6
Liu C.
Vandewinkel H.
4-66-36-4
Sierra S.
Bondar A.
6-35-77-5
Korpatsch T.
Gauff C.[7]
2-61-6
Svitolina E.[8]
Snigur D.
5-72-6
Erjavec V.
Jeanjean L.
4-66-46-76
Tomljanovic A.
Bolkvadze M.
2-66-24-6
Krueger A.
Vekic D.[31]
3-67-636-4
Navarro E.[23]
Badosa P.
4-66-37-5
Selekhmeteva O.
Kraus S.
6-17-5
Starodubtseva Y.
Blinkova A.
7-634-61-6
N. Podoroska
Kostyuk M.[12]
1-62-6
Paolini J.[13]
Montgomery R.
0-66-47-5
Shymanovich I.
Golubic V.
2-66-21-6
Kalinina A.
Rakhimova K.
6-44-65-7
Sakkari M.
Tauson C.[24]
6-36-3
Eala A.[29]
Zarazua R.
6-16-2
S. Williams
Joint M.
3-67-663-6
Valentova T.
Pliskova K.
3-64-6
Townsend T.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-66-23-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Gjorcheska L.
6-36-2
Marcinko P.
Kenin S.
6-744-6
Begu I.
Swan K.
4-64-6
Day K.
Keys M.[26]
7-654-63-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Bejlek S.
6-17-66
Birrell K.
Korneeva A.
6-30-66-2
Osorio C.
Waltert S.
6-26-1
Seidel E.
Noskova L.[9]
4-63-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Lys E.
7-56-1
Kudermetova P.
Samsonova L.
3-63-6
Boulter K.
Grant T.
4-62-6
Gibson T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
1-66-32-6
Mertens E.[25]
Siegemund L.
6-26-4
Haddad Maia B.
Timofeeva M.
3-62-6
Ruse E.
Mcnally C.
5-73-6
Boisson L.
Rybakina E.[2]
4-66-13-6
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kessler M.
6-17-69
Ostapenko J.
Ruzic A.
6-26-0
Tjen J.
Kasatkina D.
7-651-64-6
Gasanova A.
Osaka N.[14]
3-62-6
Muchova K.[10]
Zhang S.
6-36-2
Parks A.
Sawangkaew M.
5-70-6
Siniakova K.[32]
Bartunkova N.
2-64-6
Krejcikova B.
Andreeva M.[5]
4-67-56-4
Pegula J.[4]
Sorribes Tormo S.
7-666-1
Yastremska D.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
3-67-612-6
Alexandrova E.[18]
Tararudee L.
7-57-5
Maria T.
Jovic I.[16]
1-62-6
Bencic B.[11]
Wang X.
7-56-0
Parry D.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
4-66-36-78
Sonmez Z.
Liu C.
5-73-6
Sierra S.
Gauff C.[7]
3-66-36-77
Snigur D.
Jeanjean L.
6-46-3
Bolkvadze M.
Krueger A.
1-60-6
Navarro E.[23]
Selekhmeteva O.
3-66-46-1
Blinkova A.
Kostyuk M.[12]
7-653-63-6
Paolini J.[13]
Golubic V.
7-606-4
Rakhimova K.
Sakkari M.
3-66-06-77
Eala A.[29]
Joint M.
3-66-26-0
Pliskova K.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-63-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Kenin S.
6-24-67-63
Swan K.
Keys M.[26]
1-64-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Birrell K.
6-36-4
Osorio C.
Noskova L.[9]
3-66-42-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Samsonova L.
4-66-42-6
Grant T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
5-73-6
Mertens E.[25]
Timofeeva M.
2-66-36-0
Mcnally C.
Rybakina E.[2]
1-62-6
Sabalenka A.[1]
Ostapenko J.
6-46-4
Kasatkina D.
Osaka N.[14]
1-63-6
Muchova K.[10]
Sawangkaew M.
6-27-61
Bartunkova N.
Krejcikova B.
3-65-7
Pegula J.[4]
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-16-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Jovic I.[16]
3-66-34-6
Bencic B.[11]
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-44-67-66
Liu C.
Gauff C.[7]
3-67-652-6
Snigur D.
Krueger A.
3-62-6
Navarro E.[23]
Kostyuk M.[12]
2-66-41-6
Paolini J.[13]
Sakkari M.
6-16-2
Eala A.[29]
Swiatek I.[3]
7-696-2
Anisimova A.[6]
Keys M.[26]
6-32-63-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Noskova L.[9]
6-23-66-79
Samsonova L.
Bouzkova M.[21]
6-46-734-6
Mertens E.[25]
Rybakina E.[2]
7-646-1
Sabalenka A.[1]
Osaka N.[14]
2-66-72
Muchova K.[10]
Krejcikova B.
7-55-76-3
Pegula J.[4]
Jovic I.[16]
4-66-36-1
Bencic B.[11]
Gauff C.[7]
6-43-64-6
Krueger A.
Kostyuk M.[12]
4-64-6
Paolini J.[13]
Eala A.[29]
6-44-66-3
Keys M.[26]
Noskova L.[9]
4-66-72
Bouzkova M.[21]
Mertens E.[25]
4-64-6
Osaka N.
Muchova K.
6-744-6
Pegula J.[4]
Gauff C.[7]
6-43-63-6
Kostyuk M.
Paolini J.
Noskova L.
Mertens E.
Muchova K.
Gauff C.
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