Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana CirsteaBrisbane Round of 16

Brisbane · WTA · Round of 16
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 4 January 2026
hard
#18WTA
1957ELO
1914Hard ELO
$1.5MYTD
$12MCAREER
36 yrs · 176 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLWWWW
Sabalenka A.
6-3 6-3
Cirstea S.
Sabalenka A.
662
Cirstea S.
330

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Sorana Cirstea 6-3 6-3 in the Brisbane round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1. Aryna Sabalenka narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-09RomeR32claySorana Cirstea6-2 3-6 5-7
2023-04-24MadridR64clayAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-3
2023-03-20MiamiQFhardSorana Cirstea6-4 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving87% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Cirstea S.

Cirstea S.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Sabalenka A.Cirstea S.
96
Serve
67
39
Return
70

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
56%
53%
Service points won·Slight edge
68%
63%
Return points won·Even
43%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
70%
60%
Aces / match·Even
5.4
5.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.0
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
98
85
Break points saved·Clear edge
98
86
Break points won·Slight edge
100
92
Deciding sets·Clear edge
97
85
Tiebreaks·Even
100
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 64 days (−1.2)
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 69 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
8.9+287 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.1Hard Elo 1914
9.0Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
1.0Overall Elo 1957
0.0
H2H
10.0
8.0
Surface form
7.1
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
6.9
Country comfort
4.5
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
88
88

Sabalenka A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Cirstea S.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw