Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana CirsteaRome Round of 32

Rome · WTA · Round of 32
#1WTA
2220ELO
2103Clay ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
1 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 9 May 2026 ·
clay
#17WTA
1957ELO
1856Clay ELO
$1.5MYTD
$12MCAREER
36 yrs · 176 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLWWWW
Sabalenka A.
6-2 3-6 5-7
Cirstea S.
Sabalenka A.
6351
Cirstea S.
2672

Sorana Cirstea defeated Aryna Sabalenka 2-6 6-3 7-5 in the Rome round of 32 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 2–1, defending last year's quarter-final. Sorana Cirstea narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

Head to head

21
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-04BrisbaneR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-3
2023-04-24MadridR64clayAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-3
2023-03-20MiamiQFhardSorana Cirstea6-4 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Cirstea S.

Cirstea S.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Sabalenka A.Cirstea S.
Serve
81
Return
32

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
56%
53%
Service points won·Slight edge
68%
63%
Return points won·Even
44%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
69%
61%
Aces / match·Even
5.2
5.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.0
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
98
85
Break points saved·Clear edge
98
86
Break points won·Slight edge
100
92
Deciding sets·Clear edge
97
85
Tiebreaks·Even
100
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
8.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
9.2+247 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.8Clay Elo 1856
9.0Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
1.0Overall Elo 1957
5.0
H2H
5.0
8.5
Surface form
6.8
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
6.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
7.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
90
90

Sabalenka A.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d) · Cirstea S.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
24°COvercast
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 50%

Draw

R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final