Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana CirsteaMadrid Round of 64

Madrid · WTA · Round of 64
#1WTA
2220ELO
2103Clay ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 24 April 2023
clay
#17WTA
1957ELO
1856Clay ELO
$1.5MYTD
$12MCAREER
36 yrs · 176 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLWWWW
Sabalenka A.
6-4 6-3
Cirstea S.
Sabalenka A.
662
Cirstea S.
430

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Sorana Cirstea 6-4 6-3 in the Madrid round of 64 on clay. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, defending last year's round of 64. Aryna Sabalenka narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-09RomeR32claySorana Cirstea6-2 3-6 5-7
2026-01-04BrisbaneR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-3
2023-03-20MiamiQFhardSorana Cirstea6-4 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Cirstea S.

Cirstea S.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Sabalenka A.Cirstea S.
Serve
81
Return
32

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
48%
Service points won·Even
63%
59%
Return points won·Even
45%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.6
3.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.9
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 158). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
98
85
Break points saved·Clear edge
98
86
Break points won·Slight edge
100
92
Deciding sets·Clear edge
97
85
Tiebreaks·Even
100
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
8.2
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
4.2
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 35 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
9.2+247 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.8Clay Elo 1856
9.0Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
1.0Overall Elo 1957
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.2
Surface form
3.2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.1
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
8.0
Prev. match
Surface transition
6.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0
5.0
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
90
90

Sabalenka A.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d) · Cirstea S.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
19°CMainly clear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 48%

Draw