Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula — Berlin Semi-final
Sabalenka A.
Aryna Sabalenka faces Jessica Pegula in the Berlin semi-final on grass. Aryna Sabalenka holds the paper edge — ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 9–3, defending last year's semi-final.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:22 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Sabalenka A. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Aryna Sabalenka leads on Serve Rating (96), Jessica Pegula on Return Rating (63).
- Head-to-head: Aryna Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 9–3; this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Riyadh Finals 2025.
- Last match: Aryna Sabalenka dropped the opening set before beating Nikola Bartunkova 2–6 7–6 6–4.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on grass
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadSabalenka A.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d) · Pegula J.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
When it starts
1st on STEFFI GRAF STADION · not before Starting at 12:00 PM · up next on court
- 1Sabalenka A. v Pegula J.This match
- 2Noskova L. v Eala A.
Conditions
Head to head
9–3| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | Riyadh Finals | RR | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-4 2-6 6-3 |
| 2025-10-06 | Wuhan | SF | hard | Jessica Pegula | 2-6 6-4 7-6(2) |
| 2025-08-25 | US Open | SF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 4-6 6-3 6-4 |
| 2025-03-18 | Miami | F | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 7-5 6-2 |
| 2024-08-26 | US Open | F | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 7-5 7-5 |
| 2024-08-12 | Cincinnati | F | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2023-10-30 | Cancun Finals | RR | hard | Jessica Pegula | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2022-10-31 | Fort Worth Finals | RR | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2022-05-09 | Rome | R16 | clay | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2021-04-29 | Madrid | R16 | clay | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-1 6-2 |
| 2020-09-28 | Roland Garros | R128 | clay | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 6-1 |
| 2020-08-24 | Cincinnati | R16 | hard | Jessica Pegula | 6-2 2-6 6-3 |