Jessica Pegula vs Aryna Sabalenka — Cancun Finals Round Robin

Cancun Finals · WTA · Round Robin
USA
Jessica Pegula
[5]
#5WTA
2103ELO
2061Hard ELO
$2.6MYTD
$24MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 30 October 2023
hard
BLR
Aryna Sabalenka
[1]
#1WTA
2240ELO
2211Hard ELO
$4.1MYTD
$49MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWWW

Jessica Pegula defeated Aryna Sabalenka 6-4 6-3 in the Cancun Finals round robin on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 9–2, but Jessica Pegula had arrived on a 5-match winning run. Jessica Pegula narrowed the head-to-head to 9–3.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Pegula J.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Sabalenka A.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
3.0Hard Elo 2061
Surface ELO
7.0+150 Hard Elo edge
3.1Overall Elo 2103
ELO gap
6.9Overall Elo 2240
0.0
H2H
10.0
8.5
Surface form
7.4
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
9.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0
Opponent rise
2.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Pegula J.
662
Sabalenka A.
430

Head to head

2–9
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-01Riyadh FinalsRRhardAryna Sabalenka6-4 2-6 6-3
2025-10-06WuhanSFhardJessica Pegula2-6 6-4 7-6(2)
2025-08-25US OpenSFhardAryna Sabalenka4-6 6-3 6-4
2025-03-18MiamiFhardAryna Sabalenka7-5 6-2
2024-08-26US OpenFhardAryna Sabalenka7-5 7-5
2024-08-12CincinnatiFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 7-5
2022-10-31Fort Worth FinalsRRhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 7-5
2022-05-09RomeR16clayAryna Sabalenka6-1 6-4
2021-04-29MadridR16clayAryna Sabalenka6-1 6-2
2020-09-28Roland GarrosR128clayAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-1
2020-08-24CincinnatiR16hardJessica Pegula6-2 2-6 6-3
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

Recent form
Pegula J.Sabalenka A.
64%1st serve in+1%65%
71%1st serve points won+3%74%
52%2nd serve points won+4%56%
64%Service points won+4%68%
44%Return points won+1%43%
64%Break points saved+6%70%
5Aces / match+0.45.4
1.8Double faults / match+0.22

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw

Final
Swiatek I.[2]
Pegula J.[5]
6-16-0
Semi-finals
Pegula J.[5]
Gauff C.[3]
6-26-1
Swiatek I.[2]
Sabalenka A.[1]
6-36-2
Round Robin
Sabalenka A.[1]
Rybakina E.[4]
6-23-66-3
Sabalenka A.[1]
Sakkari M.[8]
6-06-1
Pegula J.[5]
Rybakina E.[4]
7-56-2
Rybakina E.[4]
Sakkari M.[8]
6-06-747-62
Pegula J.[5]
Sakkari M.[8]
6-36-2
Swiatek I.[2]
Gauff C.[3]
6-07-5
Swiatek I.[2]
Jabeur O.[6]
6-16-2
Swiatek I.[2]
Vondrousova M.[7]
7-636-0
Gauff C.[3]
Jabeur O.[6]
6-06-1
Gauff C.[3]
Vondrousova M.[7]
5-77-646-3
Jabeur O.[6]
Vondrousova M.[7]
6-46-3
Pegula J.[5]
Sabalenka A.[1]
6-46-3