Jessica Pegula vs Aryna SabalenkaWuhan Semi-final

Wuhan · WTA · Semi-final
#4WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$2.8MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 6 October 2025
hard
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Pegula J.
2-6 6-4 7-6
Sabalenka A.
Pegula J.
26772
Sabalenka A.
64621

Jessica Pegula defeated Aryna Sabalenka 2-6 6-4 7-6 in the Wuhan semi-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 9–3, defending the title. Jessica Pegula narrowed the head-to-head to 9–4.

Key context

Head to head

39
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-20BerlinSFgrassJessica Pegula4-6 7.7-6.4 0-6
2025-11-01Riyadh FinalsRRhardAryna Sabalenka6-4 2-6 6-3
2025-08-25US OpenSFhardAryna Sabalenka4-6 6-3 6-4
2025-03-18MiamiFhardAryna Sabalenka7-5 6-2
2024-08-26US OpenFhardAryna Sabalenka7-5 7-5
2024-08-12CincinnatiFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 7-5
2023-10-30Cancun FinalsRRhardJessica Pegula6-4 6-3
2022-10-31Fort Worth FinalsRRhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 7-5
2022-05-09RomeR16clayAryna Sabalenka6-1 6-4
2021-04-29MadridR16clayAryna Sabalenka6-1 6-2
2020-09-28Roland GarrosR128clayAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-1
2020-08-24CincinnatiR16hardJessica Pegula6-2 2-6 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Pegula J.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Sabalenka A.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Pegula J.Sabalenka A.
68
Serve
96
73
Return
39

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
52%
Service points won·Even
62%
63%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
65%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.2
4.2
Double faults / match·Even
2.1
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (96 vs 90). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
96
98
Break points saved·Even
96
98
Break points won·Even
99
100
Deciding sets·Even
100
97
Tiebreaks·Even
96
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 60 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
3.0Hard Elo 2058
Surface ELO
7.0+143 Hard Elo edge
3.1Overall Elo 2097
ELO gap
6.9Overall Elo 2220
2.3
H2H
7.7
6.8
Surface form
8.9
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3.8
Minutes 14d
0.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
Country comfort
7.2
Context
6.0
Defending pts

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
76
88

Pegula J.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d) · Sabalenka A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
33°CClear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 60%

Draw

Semi-finals
Gauff C.[3]
Paolini J.[7]
6-46-3
Pegula J.[6]
Sabalenka A.[1]
2-66-47-62