

Jessica Pegula defeated Aryna Sabalenka 2-6 6-4 7-6 in the Wuhan semi-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 9–3, defending the title. Jessica Pegula narrowed the head-to-head to 9–4.
| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Berlin | SF | grass | Jessica Pegula | 4-6 7.7-6.4 0-6 |
| 2025-11-01 | Riyadh Finals | RR | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-4 2-6 6-3 |
| 2025-08-25 | US Open | SF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 4-6 6-3 6-4 |
| 2025-03-18 | Miami | F | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 7-5 6-2 |
| 2024-08-26 | US Open | F | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 7-5 7-5 |
| 2024-08-12 | Cincinnati | F | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2023-10-30 | Cancun Finals | RR | hard | Jessica Pegula | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2022-10-31 | Fort Worth Finals | RR | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2022-05-09 | Rome | R16 | clay | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2021-04-29 | Madrid | R16 | clay | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-1 6-2 |
| 2020-09-28 | Roland Garros | R128 | clay | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 6-1 |
| 2020-08-24 | Cincinnati | R16 | hard | Jessica Pegula | 6-2 2-6 6-3 |
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (96 vs 90). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Pegula J.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d) · Sabalenka A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About