Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini — Riyadh Finals Round Robin

Riyadh Finals · WTA · Round Robin
BLR
Aryna Sabalenka
[1]
#1WTA
2240ELO
2211Hard ELO
$4.1MYTD
$49MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Saturday, 1 November 2025
hard
ITA
Jasmine Paolini
[8]
#13WTA
1930ELO
1885Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLWLWL

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Jasmine Paolini 6-3 6-1 in the Riyadh Finals round robin on hard. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 5–1, defending last year's semi-final. Aryna Sabalenka extended the head-to-head to 6–1.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sabalenka A.
7.7
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 26 days (−0.3)
Paolini J.
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
9.1+326 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.9Hard Elo 1885
9.0Overall Elo 2240
ELO gap
1.0Overall Elo 1930
10.0
H2H
0.0
7.7
Surface form
6.9
Fatigue & Travel
9.0
Prev. match
4.0
Context
8.5
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Sabalenka A.
662
Paolini J.
310

Head to head

5–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-04-14StuttgartSFclayAryna Sabalenka7-5 6-4
2025-03-18MiamiSFhardAryna Sabalenka6-2 6-2
2024-11-04Riyadh FinalsRRhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 7-5
2023-10-02BeijingR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-4 7-6(4)
2022-03-07Indian WellsR64hardJasmine Paolini2-6 6-3 6-3
2020-11-09LinzR32hardAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

Recent form
Sabalenka A.Paolini J.
65%1st serve in+2%67%
74%1st serve points won+15%59%
56%2nd serve points won+7%49%
68%Service points won+12%56%
43%Return points won+1%42%
70%Break points saved+11%59%
5.4Aces / match+3.42
2Double faults / match+0.31.7

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw

Final
Rybakina E.[6]
Sabalenka A.[1]
6-37-60
Semi-finals
Rybakina E.[6]
Pegula J.[5]
4-66-46-3
Sabalenka A.[1]
Anisimova A.[4]
6-33-66-3
Round Robin
Sabalenka A.[1]
Pegula J.[5]
6-42-66-3
Rybakina E.[6]
Alexandrova E.
6-46-4
Gauff C.[3]
Paolini J.[8]
6-36-2
Rybakina E.[6]
Swiatek I.[2]
3-66-16-0
Swiatek I.[2]
Keys M.[7]
6-16-2
Anisimova A.[4]
Keys M.[7]
4-66-36-2
Sabalenka A.[1]
Gauff C.[3]
7-656-2
Rybakina E.[6]
Anisimova A.[4]
6-36-1
Sabalenka A.[1]
Paolini J.[8]
6-36-1
Pegula J.[5]
Gauff C.[3]
6-36-746-2
Pegula J.[5]
Paolini J.[8]
6-26-3
Anisimova A.[4]
Swiatek I.[2]
6-736-46-2