Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini — Miami Semi-final

Miami · WTA · Semi-final
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR1
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 18 March 2025
hard
Jasmine Paolini
ITA6
Jasmine Paolini
#17WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
Sabalenka A.
6-2 6-2
Paolini J.
Sabalenka A.
662
Paolini J.
220

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Jasmine Paolini 6-2 6-2 in the Miami semi-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 5–1, defending last year's round of 32. Aryna Sabalenka extended the head-to-head to 6–1.

Key context

Head to head

5–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-01Riyadh FinalsRRhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-1
2025-04-14StuttgartSFclayAryna Sabalenka7-5 6-4
2024-11-04Riyadh FinalsRRhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 7-5
2023-10-02BeijingR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-4 7-6(4)
2022-03-07Indian WellsR64hardJasmine Paolini2-6 6-3 6-3
2020-11-09LinzR32hardAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Paolini J.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Sabalenka A.Paolini J.
96
Serve
31
39
Return
55

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Sabalenka A.Paolini J.
1st serve in·Even
63%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
57%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
55%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.2
1.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.2
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (90 vs 73). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Sabalenka A.Paolini J.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
98
89
Break points saved·Slight edge
98
87
Break points won·Even
100
99
Deciding sets·Even
97
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
100
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sabalenka A.
8.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Paolini J.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
9.1+329 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.9Hard Elo 1873
9.0Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
1.0Overall Elo 1905
10.0
H2H
0.0
7.5
Surface form
5.9
Fatigue & Travel
6.3
Minutes 14d
6.6
7.0
3-set count
4.0
Prev. match
7.0
6.1
Country comfort
5.2
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Sabalenka A.Paolini J.
Freshness·Clear edge
86
72

Sabalenka A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Paolini J.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 61 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
22°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 54%

Draw

Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Pegula J.[4]
7-56-2
Semi-finals
Sabalenka A.[1]
Paolini J.[6]
6-26-2
Pegula J.[4]
Eala A.
7-635-76-3
Quarter-finals
Sabalenka A.[1]
Zheng Q.[9]
6-27-5
Paolini J.[6]
Linette M.
6-36-2
Eala A.
Swiatek I.[2]
6-27-5
Pegula J.[4]
Raducanu E.
6-46-736-2
R16
Eala A.
Badosa P.[10]
W/O
Zheng Q.[9]
Krueger A.
6-27-63
Paolini J.[6]
Osaka N.
3-66-46-4
Linette M.
Gauff C.[3]
6-46-4
Swiatek I.[2]
Svitolina E.[22]
7-656-3
Raducanu E.
Anisimova A.[17]
6-16-3
Pegula J.[4]
Kostyuk M.[23]
6-26-3
Sabalenka A.[1]
Collins D.[14]
6-46-4
R32
Paolini J.[6]
Jabeur O.[31]
4-3
Raducanu E.
Kessler M.
6-13-0
Sabalenka A.[1]
Ruse E.
6-10-0
Osaka N.
Baptiste H.
7-663-66-4
Anisimova A.[17]
Andreeva M.[11]
7-652-66-3
Collins D.[14]
Masarova R.
6-43-66-3
Swiatek I.[2]
Mertens E.[27]
7-626-1
Svitolina E.[22]
Muchova K.[15]
6-23-66-2
Pegula J.[4]
Kalinskaya A.[32]
6-736-27-62
Badosa P.[10]
Tauson C.[20]
6-37-63
Eala A.
Keys M.[5]
6-46-2
Linette M.
Fruhvirtova L.
7-56-4
Krueger A.
Fernandez L.[26]
6-17-5
Gauff C.[3]
Sakkari M.[28]
6-26-4
Zheng Q.[9]
Townsend T.
6-17-63
Kostyuk M.[23]
Blinkova A.
6-26-1
R64
Muchova K.[15]
Azarenka V.
6-00-0
Townsend T.
Putintseva Y.[19]
7-621-66-1
Andreeva M.[11]
Kudermetova V.
6-06-2
Gauff C.[3]
Kenin S.
6-06-0
Fruhvirtova L.
Haddad Maia B.[16]
6-06-2
Raducanu E.
Navarro E.[8]
7-662-67-63
Paolini J.[6]
Sramkova R.
6-46-4
Tauson C.[20]
Grabher J.
6-47-5
Eala A.
Ostapenko J.[25]
7-627-5
Svitolina E.[22]
Bencic B.
6-16-2
Kalinskaya A.[32]
Uchijima M.
6-16-3
Zheng Q.[9]
Davis L.
6-17-5
Kostyuk M.[23]
Birrell K.
7-54-66-3
Osaka N.
Samsonova L.[24]
6-26-4
Linette M.
Alexandrova E.[18]
7-656-2
Anisimova A.[17]
Sherif M.
6-26-2
Keys M.[5]
Avanesyan E.
6-36-3
Fernandez L.[26]
Parks A.
7-616-3
Collins D.[14]
Cirstea S.
6-47-63
Sabalenka A.[1]
Tomova V.
6-36-0
Sakkari M.[28]
Bronzetti L.
6-35-76-4
Ruse E.
Frech M.[29]
6-46-4
Baptiste H.
Kasatkina D.[12]
3-66-47-5
Masarova R.
Vekic D.[21]
6-16-3
Mertens E.[27]
Stearns P.
6-46-1
Swiatek I.[2]
Garcia C.
6-27-5
Badosa P.[10]
Mboko V.
7-51-67-63
Pegula J.[4]
Pera B.
6-46-4
Blinkova A.
Shnaider D.[13]
6-47-60
Kessler M.
Noskova L.[30]
2-67-57-64
Jabeur O.[31]
Siniakova K.
6-47-67
Krueger A.
Rybakina E.[7]
6-42-66-4
R128
Parks A.
Gracheva V.
3-67-606-3
Bronzetti L.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-46-3
Ruse E.
Kudermetova P.
6-16-756-2
Kudermetova V.
Wang X.
6-27-65
Townsend T.
Li A.
3-66-46-2
Uchijima M.
Lamens S.
6-46-3
Blinkova A.
Rakhimova K.
4-66-36-2
Raducanu E.
Ishii S.
6-26-1
Grabher J.
Grant T.
6-46-4
Mboko V.
Osorio C.
7-55-76-3
Stearns P.
Boulter K.
6-46-2
Bencic B.
Yastremska D.
6-41-67-5
Azarenka V.
Kalinina A.
6-36-1
Garcia C.
Bondar A.
6-07-65
Sherif M.
Sun L.
7-51-66-4
Baptiste H.
Danilovic O.
6-36-756-1
Krueger A.
Zarazua R.
6-36-2
Cirstea S.
Cocciaretto E.
6-37-65
Kenin S.
Kvitova P.
6-47-5
Tomova V.
Mcnally C.
6-32-66-3
Davis L.
Ito A.
6-43-66-4
Masarova R.
Minnen G.
6-746-47-5
Birrell K.
Potapova A.
3-66-37-65
Pera B.
Tomljanovic A.
6-36-2
Kessler M.
Bouzkova M.
6-42-66-4
Siniakova K.
Yuan Y.
6-22-67-64
Fruhvirtova L.
Liu C.
7-54-66-3
Linette M.
Pavlyuchenkova A.
7-636-2
Eala A.
Volynets K.
6-37-63
Avanesyan E.
Andreeva E.
6-16-746-4
Sramkova R.
Stefanini L.
3-66-16-3
Osaka N.
Starodubtseva Y.
3-66-46-3