Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini — Riyadh Finals Round Robin

Riyadh Finals · WTA · Round Robin
BLR
Aryna Sabalenka
[1]
#1WTA
2240ELO
2211Hard ELO
$4.1MYTD
$49MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 4 November 2024
hard
ITA
Jasmine Paolini
[4]
#13WTA
1930ELO
1885Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLWLWL

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Jasmine Paolini 6-3 7-5 in the Riyadh Finals round robin on hard. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 5–1. Aryna Sabalenka extended the head-to-head to 6–1.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sabalenka A.
7.7
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
Paolini J.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
9.1+326 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.9Hard Elo 1885
9.0Overall Elo 2240
ELO gap
1.0Overall Elo 1930
5.4
H2H
4.6
9.2
Surface form
5.7
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Sabalenka A.
672
Paolini J.
350

Head to head

5–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-01Riyadh FinalsRRhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-1
2025-04-14StuttgartSFclayAryna Sabalenka7-5 6-4
2025-03-18MiamiSFhardAryna Sabalenka6-2 6-2
2023-10-02BeijingR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-4 7-6(4)
2022-03-07Indian WellsR64hardJasmine Paolini2-6 6-3 6-3
2020-11-09LinzR32hardAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

Recent form
Sabalenka A.Paolini J.
65%1st serve in+2%67%
74%1st serve points won+15%59%
56%2nd serve points won+7%49%
68%Service points won+12%56%
43%Return points won+1%42%
70%Break points saved+12%58%
5.4Aces / match+3.32.1
2Double faults / match+0.31.7

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw

Final
Gauff C.[3]
Zheng Q.[7]
3-66-47-62
Semi-finals
Zheng Q.[7]
Krejcikova B.[8]
6-37-5
Gauff C.[3]
Sabalenka A.[1]
7-646-3
Round Robin
Swiatek I.[2]
Krejcikova B.[8]
4-67-56-2
Sabalenka A.[1]
Paolini J.[4]
6-37-5
Zheng Q.[7]
Paolini J.[4]
6-16-1
Swiatek I.[2]
Kasatkina D.
6-16-0
Zheng Q.[7]
Rybakina E.[5]
7-643-66-1
Gauff C.[3]
Swiatek I.[2]
6-36-4
Gauff C.[3]
Pegula J.[6]
6-36-2
Krejcikova B.[8]
Gauff C.[3]
7-56-4
Krejcikova B.[8]
Pegula J.[6]
6-36-3
Sabalenka A.[1]
Zheng Q.[7]
6-36-4
Paolini J.[4]
Rybakina E.[5]
7-656-4
Rybakina E.[5]
Sabalenka A.[1]
6-43-66-1