Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine PaoliniStuttgart Semi-final

Stuttgart · WTA · Semi-final
#1WTA
2220ELO
2103Clay ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 14 April 2025
clay
#17WTA
1905ELO
1856Clay ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
Sabalenka A.
7-5 6-4
Paolini J.
Sabalenka A.
762
Paolini J.
540

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Jasmine Paolini 7-5 6-4 in the Stuttgart semi-final on clay. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 5–1, defending last year's quarter-final. Aryna Sabalenka extended the head-to-head to 6–1.

Key context

Head to head

51
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-01Riyadh FinalsRRhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-1
2025-03-18MiamiSFhardAryna Sabalenka6-2 6-2
2024-11-04Riyadh FinalsRRhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 7-5
2023-10-02BeijingR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-4 7-6(4)
2022-03-07Indian WellsR64hardJasmine Paolini2-6 6-3 6-3
2020-11-09LinzR32hardAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Paolini J.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
57%
Return points won·Even
45%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
56%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.3
1.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.2
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (90 vs 73). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
98
89
Break points saved·Slight edge
98
87
Break points won·Even
100
99
Deciding sets·Even
97
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
100
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.8
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 27 days (−0.3)
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 27 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
8.2+247 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.8Clay Elo 1856
9.0Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
1.0Overall Elo 1905
5.0
H2H
5.0
8.1
Surface form
7.6
10.09-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Prev. match
7.0
5.7
Country comfort
6.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
7.0
Defending pts
7.0
5.0
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
86
72

Sabalenka A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Paolini J.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 61 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
15°COvercast
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 70%