Jasmine Paolini vs Aryna Sabalenka — Indian Wells Round of 64

Indian Wells · WTA · Round of 64
Jasmine Paolini
ITA
Jasmine Paolini
#17WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 7 March 2022
hard
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR2
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Paolini J.
2-6 6-3 6-3
Sabalenka A.
Paolini J.
2662
Sabalenka A.
6331

Jasmine Paolini defeated Aryna Sabalenka 2-6 6-3 6-3 in the Indian Wells round of 64 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 6–0. Jasmine Paolini claimed a first win over Aryna Sabalenka in seven meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 6–1.

Key context

Head to head

0–6
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-01Riyadh FinalsRRhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-1
2025-04-14StuttgartSFclayAryna Sabalenka7-5 6-4
2025-03-18MiamiSFhardAryna Sabalenka6-2 6-2
2024-11-04Riyadh FinalsRRhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 7-5
2023-10-02BeijingR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-4 7-6(4)
2020-11-09LinzR32hardAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Paolini J.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Sabalenka A.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Paolini J.Sabalenka A.
31
Serve
96
55
Return
39

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Paolini J.Sabalenka A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
68%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
61%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
57%
63%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.3
4.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.8
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Paolini J.Sabalenka A.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
89
98
Break points saved·Slight edge
87
98
Break points won·Even
99
100
Deciding sets·Even
97
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
93
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Paolini J.
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Sabalenka A.
8.3
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
0.9Hard Elo 1873
Surface ELO
9.1+329 Hard Elo edge
1.0Overall Elo 1905
ELO gap
9.0Overall Elo 2220
0.0
H2H
10.0
4.9
Surface form
6.1
Fatigue & Travel
5.7
Minutes 14d
7.9
4.0
3-set count
Prev. match
9.0
Country comfort
5.8
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Paolini J.Sabalenka A.
Freshness·Clear edge
72
86

Paolini J.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 61 games (7d) · Sabalenka A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
21°CClear
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 10%

Draw

Final
Swiatek I.[3]
Sakkari M.[6]
6-46-1
Semi-finals
Sakkari M.[6]
Badosa P.[5]
6-24-66-1
Swiatek I.[3]
Halep S.[24]
7-666-4
Quarter-finals
Swiatek I.[3]
Keys M.[25]
6-16-0
Badosa P.[5]
Kudermetova V.[21]
6-36-2
Sakkari M.[6]
Rybakina E.[17]
7-56-4
Halep S.[24]
Martic P.
6-16-1
R16
Keys M.[25]
Dart H.
6-16-4
Badosa P.[5]
Fernandez L.[18]
6-46-4
Kudermetova V.[21]
Vondrousova M.[30]
7-656-757-5
Halep S.[24]
Cirstea S.[26]
6-16-4
Martic P.
Samsonova L.[28]
7-666-4
Sakkari M.[6]
Saville D.
4-1
Swiatek I.[3]
Kerber A.[15]
4-66-26-3
Rybakina E.[17]
Golubic V.[31]
7-656-2
R32
Cirstea S.[26]
Kalinskaya A.
5-76-16-0
Halep S.[24]
Gauff C.[16]
6-36-4
Martic P.
Raducanu E.[11]
6-736-47-5
Samsonova L.[28]
Kovinic D.
6-47-64
Kerber A.[15]
Kasatkina D.[23]
6-26-1
Dart H.
Kanepi K.
7-646-3
Keys M.[25]
Riske Amritraj A.
7-646-1
Badosa P.[5]
Sorribes Tormo S.[32]
7-646-1
Fernandez L.[18]
Rogers S.
6-13-66-3
Vondrousova M.[30]
Kontaveit A.[4]
3-67-57-65
Sakkari M.[6]
Kvitova P.[27]
6-36-0
Saville D.
Mertens E.[20]
6-34-66-3
Rybakina E.[17]
Azarenka V.[13]
6-36-4
Golubic V.[31]
Paolini J.
7-51-67-64
Kudermetova V.[21]
Bouzkova M.
6-40-2
Swiatek I.[3]
Tauson C.[29]
6-736-26-1
R64
Raducanu E.[11]
Garcia C.
6-13-66-1
Kovinic D.
Pliskova K.[7]
2-67-56-4
Swiatek I.[3]
Kalinina A.
5-76-06-1
Tauson C.[29]
Haddad Maia B.
6-46-3
Kasatkina D.[23]
Volynets K.
6-44-67-5
Kanepi K.
Bencic B.[22]
6-46-3
Keys M.[25]
Doi M.
6-43-66-1
Badosa P.[5]
Martincova T.
6-27-64
Fernandez L.[18]
Anisimova A.
2-67-60
Bouzkova M.
Pegula J.[14]
5-76-26-0
Vondrousova M.[30]
Frech M.
6-16-3
Sakkari M.[6]
Siniakova K.
6-37-5
Kvitova P.[27]
Sasnovich A.
6-746-46-4
Mertens E.[20]
Kostyuk M.
6-26-1
Saville D.
Jabeur O.[9]
7-56-706-4
Azarenka V.[13]
Sharma A.
6-37-5
Paolini J.
Sabalenka A.[2]
2-66-36-3
Halep S.[24]
Alexandrova E.
6-24-66-2
Gauff C.[16]
Liu C.
6-17-64
Samsonova L.[28]
Li A.
4-66-46-3
Kudermetova V.[21]
Osaka N.
6-06-4
Dart H.
Svitolina E.[12]
2-66-36-3
Sorribes Tormo S.[32]
Juvan K.
3-67-56-3
Martic P.
Zidansek T.[19]
7-57-66
Riske Amritraj A.
Muguruza G.[8]
0-66-36-1
Rogers S.
Ostapenko J.[10]
7-57-67
Kerber A.[15]
Zheng Q.
6-25-76-4
Kontaveit A.[4]
Kucova K.
6-46-1
Cirstea S.[26]
Tomljanovic A.
6-47-5
Rybakina E.[17]
Van Uytvanck A.
6-17-5
Kalinskaya A.
Cornet A.[33]
6-40-66-2
Golubic V.[31]
Putintseva Y.
6-32-66-4
R128
Kostyuk M.
Zanevska M.
6-757-667-5
Liu C.
Tomova V.
7-626-4
Garcia C.
Yastremska D.
6-46-787-5
Martic P.
Bondar A.
7-56-3
Juvan K.
Dodin O.
6-36-3
Anisimova A.
Navarro E.
6-26-2
Rogers S.
Parrizas Diaz N.
6-15-77-63
Osaka N.
Stephens S.
3-66-16-2
Frech M.
Sherif M.
6-27-5
Sharma A.
Linette M.
6-47-61
Van Uytvanck A.
Galfi D.
7-636-4
Putintseva Y.
Krueger A.
6-36-2
Kalinskaya A.
Tan H.
6-21-0
Haddad Maia B.
Kenin S.
6-37-5
Volynets K.
Rus A.
4-66-46-1
Zheng Q.
Zvonareva V.
6-36-2
Doi M.
Potapova A.
0-66-46-3
Riske Amritraj A.
Mcnally C.
6-06-3
Martincova T.
Watson H.
6-26-1
Dart H.
Konjuh A.
6-13-1
Sasnovich A.
Osorio C.
6-45-0
Paolini J.
Boulter K.
6-36-2
Kucova K.
Ruse E.
4-66-46-1
Kovinic D.
Teichmann J.
7-57-5
Kanepi K.
Montgomery R.
6-36-3
Kalinina A.
Burel C.
6-36-2
Bouzkova M.
Wang Q.
6-37-65
Alexandrova E.
Kalieva E.
4-66-27-67
Saville D.
Zhang S.
6-36-2
Tomljanovic A.
Baptiste H.
6-22-66-2
Li A.
Brengle M.
1-67-656-0
Siniakova K.
Begu I.
6-24-66-4