Daria Snigur vs Leolia Jeanjean — Wimbledon Round of 64
Snigur D.
Daria Snigur faces Leolia Jeanjean in the Wimbledon round of 64 on grass. Daria Snigur is the paper favourite — ranked #77, a roughly 140-point grass Elo advantage — but Leolia Jeanjean arrives in form, winning all 4 of their last grass matches to Daria Snigur's 3.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Snigur D. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Leolia Jeanjean has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 81 vs 55).
- Last match: Leolia Jeanjean edged Veronika Erjavec in three tight sets (6–4 4–6 7–6).
- Fatigue load: Leolia Jeanjean carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadSnigur D.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Jeanjean L.: 5 days rest · 3 matches, 63 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.