Taylor Townsend vs Iga Swiatek — Wimbledon Round of 128
POL
Townsend T.
Taylor Townsend faces Iga Swiatek in the Wimbledon round of 128 on grass. Iga Swiatek holds the paper edge — ranked #3, defending the title, a roughly 310-point grass Elo advantage.
Around the match
“I feel like people talk about it more. I think the whole vibe of becoming a member of the All England Club is something that you are not going to experience on other tournaments.”
Swiatek I.WTA Tennis ↗“I'm really in a place that I'm keeping my expectations low. I think, honestly, I had a lot of calm and confidence in my shots. That was the key.”
Swiatek I.WTA Tennis ↗
Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 14:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Swiatek I. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Taylor Townsend 44 games in 14 days, Iga Swiatek 29.
- Under pressure: Iga Swiatek has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 100 vs Taylor Townsend's 74).
- Stage: Taylor Townsend defends last year's round of 128; Iga Swiatek defends the title here.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (17 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadTownsend T.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d) · Swiatek I.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.