Jasmine Paolini vs Iga SwiatekWuhan Quarter-final

Wuhan · WTA · Quarter-final
#17WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 6 October 2025
hard
#3WTA
2064ELO
2022Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$46MCAREER
25 yrs · 176 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWWWLW
Paolini J.
6-1 6-2
Swiatek I.
Paolini J.
662
Swiatek I.
120

Jasmine Paolini defeated Iga Swiatek 6-1 6-2 in the Wuhan quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Iga Swiatek came in ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 5–0. Jasmine Paolini claimed a first win over Iga Swiatek in six meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 5–1.

Key context

Head to head

05
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-08-07CincinnatiFhardIga Swiatek7-5 6-4
2025-06-22Bad HomburgSFgrassIga Swiatek6-1 6-3
2024-11-13BJK Cup FinalsSFhardIga Swiatek3-6 6-4 6-4
2024-05-27Roland GarrosFclayIga Swiatek6-2 6-1
2022-08-29US OpenR128hardIga Swiatek6-3 6-0

Serve vs return

This season
Paolini J.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Swiatek I.

Swiatek I.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Serve advantage — Swiatek I.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Paolini J.Swiatek I.
31
Serve
67
55
Return
98

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
61%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
57%
62%
Return points won·Even
44%
48%
Break points saved·Even
55%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.5
3.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.6
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (73 vs 85). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
89
100
Break points saved·Slight edge
87
98
Break points won·Even
99
100
Deciding sets·Even
97
99
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
93
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
3.3Hard Elo 1873
Surface ELO
6.7+149 Hard Elo edge
3.4Overall Elo 1905
ELO gap
6.6Overall Elo 2064
0.0
H2H
10.0
8.0
Surface form
8.5
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
5.9
Minutes 14d
7.4
7.0
3-set count
7.0
9.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
7.0
Defending pts
5.0
Opponent rise
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
72
89

Paolini J.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 61 games (7d) · Swiatek I.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
33°CClear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 60%

Draw