Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine PaoliniBad Homburg Semi-final

Bad Homburg · WTA · Semi-final
#3WTA
2064ELO
1909Grass ELO
$2.0MYTD
$46MCAREER
25 yrs · 176 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 22 June 2025
grass
#17WTA
1905ELO
1748Grass ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
Swiatek I.
6-1 6-3
Paolini J.
Swiatek I.
662
Paolini J.
130

Iga Swiatek defeated Jasmine Paolini 6-1 6-3 in the Bad Homburg semi-final on grass. The result followed the form book — Iga Swiatek came in ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 4–1. Iga Swiatek extended the head-to-head to 5–1.

Key context

Head to head

41
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-06WuhanQFhardJasmine Paolini6-1 6-2
2025-08-07CincinnatiFhardIga Swiatek7-5 6-4
2024-11-13BJK Cup FinalsSFhardIga Swiatek3-6 6-4 6-4
2024-05-27Roland GarrosFclayIga Swiatek6-2 6-1
2022-08-29US OpenR128hardIga Swiatek6-3 6-0

Serve vs return

This season
Swiatek I.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Paolini J.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Swiatek I.

Serve advantage — Swiatek I.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
57%
Return points won·Even
48%
45%
Break points saved·Even
59%
55%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.1
1.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.1
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (85 vs 73). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
100
89
Break points saved·Slight edge
98
87
Break points won·Even
100
99
Deciding sets·Even
99
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
98
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 27 days (−0.3)
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.9+161 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.1Grass Elo 1748
6.6Overall Elo 2064
ELO gap
3.4Overall Elo 1905
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.1
Surface form
7.0
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
9.2
Prev. match
9.0
3.0
Surface transition
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
91
76

Swiatek I.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Paolini J.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 34%