Mingge Xu vs Daria Kasatkina — Wimbledon Round of 128
Xu M.
Mingge Xu faces Daria Kasatkina in the Wimbledon round of 128 on grass. Daria Kasatkina holds the paper edge — defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 350-point grass Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 13:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Kasatkina D. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Form trend: Mingge Xu's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Daria Kasatkina's has cooled.
- Stage: Mingge Xu defends last year's round of 128; Daria Kasatkina defends last year's round of 32.
- Fatigue load: Mingge Xu carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (9 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadXu M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d) · Kasatkina D.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.