Jessica Pegula vs Darja Vidmanova — Wimbledon Round of 128
Pegula J.
Jessica Pegula faces Darja Vidmanova in the Wimbledon round of 128 on grass. Jessica Pegula is the paper favourite — ranked #4, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 320-point grass Elo advantage — but Darja Vidmanova rides a 5-match win streak. Recent grass form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 13:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Pegula J. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Jessica Pegula 102 games in 14 days, Darja Vidmanova 188.
- Form trend: Darja Vidmanova's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Jessica Pegula's has cooled.
- Win streak: Darja Vidmanova arrives on a 5-match winning run.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadPegula J.: 5 days rest · 3 matches, 84 games (7d) · Vidmanova D.: 5 days rest · 3 matches, 63 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.