Alexandra Eala vs Iga Swiatek — Wimbledon Round of 32

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 32
Alexandra Eala
PHI
Alexandra Eala
#32WTA
1911ELO
1822Grass ELO
$871kYTD
$2.2MCAREER
21 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWLLWWWLWW
—
Sets
Saturday, 4 July 2026 ·
grass
Iga Swiatek
POL
Iga Swiatek
#3WTA
2080ELO
1936Grass ELO
$2.0MYTD
$46MCAREER
25 yrs · 176 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLWWWLWW
Eala A.
vs
Swiatek I.

Alexandra Eala faces Iga Swiatek in the Wimbledon round of 32 on grass. Iga Swiatek holds the paper edge — ranked #3, defending the title, a roughly 110-point grass Elo advantage. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1, though this is their first meeting on grass.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:21 UTC
Eala A.20%
Swiatek I.80%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Swiatek I. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Eala A.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Swiatek I.
7.7
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.6Grass Elo 1822
Surface ELO
6.4+114 Grass Elo edge
2.9Overall Elo 1911
ELO gap
7.1Overall Elo 2080
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
6.97 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
8.89 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Country comfort
6.7Won 78% in GBR (27)
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Eala A.Rising
Swiatek I.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

31 vs 12 matches

Statistics

This season
Eala A.Swiatek I.
1st serve in·Even
64%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
63%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
51%
Service points won·Even
58%
62%
Return points won·Even
45%
48%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
0.9
2.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.6
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Eala A.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Swiatek I.

Swiatek I.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Eala A.

Serve advantage — Swiatek I.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Eala A.Swiatek I.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
74
100
Break points saved·Clear edge
75
98
Break points won·Even
96
100
Deciding sets·Clear edge
82
99
Tiebreaks·Dominant
68
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Eala A.Swiatek I.
Freshness·Slight edge
85
78

Eala A.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d) · Swiatek I.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 24 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
23°CPartly cloudy
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 53%

Head to head

1–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-04-22MadridR64clayIga Swiatek4-6 6-4 6-2
2025-03-18MiamiQFhardAlexandra Eala6-2 7-5
View full head-to-head →
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kostovic T.
6-26-3
Oliynykova O.
Kessler M.
0-60-6
Ostapenko J.
Dart H.
6-33-66-4
Ruzic A.
Semenistaja D.
6-33-66-3
Fernandez L.[22]
Tjen J.
1-66-73
Xu M.
Kasatkina D.
2-66-32-6
Gasanova A.
Arango E.
6-36-1
Jacquemot E.
Osaka N.[14]
1-65-7
Muchova K.[10]
Zakharova A.
6-36-2
Andreescu B.
Zhang S.
6-736-76
Parks A.
Dudeney A.
6-36-3
Sawangkaew M.
Chwalinska M.[20]
2-67-56-2
Siniakova K.[32]
Zheng Q.
6-46-4
Stearns P.
Bartunkova N.
4-66-35-7
Krejcikova B.
Klugman H.
6-16-4
Linette M.
Andreeva M.[5]
5-74-6
Pegula J.[4]
Vidmanova D.
7-56-3
Sorribes Tormo S.
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
6-26-3
Yastremska D.
Ito A.
7-614-67-5
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Potapova A.[27]
6-26-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Udvardy P.
6-46-2
Tararudee L.
Tagger L.
7-635-76-4
Putintseva Y.
Maria T.
4-64-6
J. Cristian
Jovic I.[16]
6-710-6
Bencic B.[11]
Stojsavljevic M.
6-26-1
Wang X.
Cocciaretto E.
6-32-66-2
Jones F.
Parry D.
4-64-6
Frech M.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-754-6
Li A.[28]
Sonmez Z.
5-76-14-6
Liu C.
Vandewinkel H.
4-66-36-4
Sierra S.
Bondar A.
6-35-77-5
Korpatsch T.
Gauff C.[7]
2-61-6
Svitolina E.[8]
Snigur D.
5-72-6
Erjavec V.
Jeanjean L.
4-66-46-76
Tomljanovic A.
Bolkvadze M.
2-66-24-6
Krueger A.
Vekic D.[31]
3-67-636-4
Navarro E.[23]
Badosa P.
4-66-37-5
Selekhmeteva O.
Kraus S.
6-17-5
Starodubtseva Y.
Blinkova A.
7-634-61-6
N. Podoroska
Kostyuk M.[12]
1-62-6
Paolini J.[13]
Montgomery R.
0-66-47-5
Shymanovich I.
Golubic V.
2-66-21-6
Kalinina A.
Rakhimova K.
6-44-65-7
Sakkari M.
Tauson C.[24]
6-36-3
Eala A.[29]
Zarazua R.
6-16-2
S. Williams
Joint M.
3-67-663-6
Valentova T.
Pliskova K.
3-64-6
Townsend T.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-66-23-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Gjorcheska L.
6-36-2
Marcinko P.
Kenin S.
6-744-6
Begu I.
Swan K.
4-64-6
Day K.
Keys M.[26]
7-654-63-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Bejlek S.
6-17-66
Birrell K.
Korneeva A.
6-30-66-2
Osorio C.
Waltert S.
6-26-1
Seidel E.
Noskova L.[9]
4-63-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Lys E.
7-56-1
Kudermetova P.
Samsonova L.
3-63-6
Boulter K.
Grant T.
4-62-6
Gibson T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
1-66-32-6
Mertens E.[25]
Siegemund L.
6-26-4
Haddad Maia B.
Timofeeva M.
3-62-6
Ruse E.
Mcnally C.
5-73-6
Boisson L.
Rybakina E.[2]
4-66-13-6
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kessler M.
6-17-69
Ostapenko J.
Ruzic A.
6-26-0
Tjen J.
Kasatkina D.
7-651-64-6
Gasanova A.
Osaka N.[14]
3-62-6
Muchova K.[10]
Zhang S.
6-36-2
Parks A.
Sawangkaew M.
5-70-6
Siniakova K.[32]
Bartunkova N.
2-64-6
Krejcikova B.
Andreeva M.[5]
4-67-56-4
Pegula J.[4]
Sorribes Tormo S.
7-666-1
Yastremska D.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
3-67-612-6
Alexandrova E.[18]
Tararudee L.
7-57-5
Maria T.
Jovic I.[16]
1-62-6
Bencic B.[11]
Wang X.
7-56-0
Parry D.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
4-66-36-78
Sonmez Z.
Liu C.
5-73-6
Sierra S.
Gauff C.[7]
3-66-36-77
Snigur D.
Jeanjean L.
6-46-3
Bolkvadze M.
Krueger A.
1-60-6
Navarro E.[23]
Selekhmeteva O.
3-66-46-1
Blinkova A.
Kostyuk M.
7-653-63-6
Paolini J.
Golubic V.
7-606-4
Rakhimova K.
Sakkari M.
3-66-06-77
Eala A.
Joint M.
3-66-26-0
Pliskova K.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-63-6
Anisimova A.
Kenin S.
6-24-67-63
Swan K.
Keys M.
1-64-6
Cirstea S.
Birrell K.
6-36-4
Osorio C.
Noskova L.
3-66-42-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Samsonova L.
4-66-42-6
Grant T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
5-73-6
Mertens E.
Timofeeva M.
2-66-36-0
Mcnally C.
Rybakina E.
1-62-6
Sabalenka A.
Ostapenko J.
Kasatkina D.
Osaka N.
Muchova K.
Sawangkaew M.
Bartunkova N.
Krejcikova B.
Pegula J.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Alexandrova E.
Jovic I.
Bencic B.[11]
Kalinskaya A.[19]
Liu C.
Gauff C.
Snigur D.
Krueger A.
Navarro E.
Kostyuk M.
Paolini J.
Sakkari M.
Eala A.
Swiatek I.
Anisimova A.
Keys M.
Cirstea S.
Noskova L.
Samsonova L.
Bouzkova M.
Mertens E.
Rybakina E.
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