Emma Navarro vs Marta Kostyuk — Wimbledon Round of 32

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 32
Emma Navarro
USA
Emma Navarro
#26WTA
1850ELO
1756Grass ELO
$675kYTD
$6.3MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWLWWWW
—
Sets
Saturday, 4 July 2026 ·
grass
Marta Kostyuk
UKR
Marta Kostyuk
#13WTA
2057ELO
1737Grass ELO
$2.3MYTD
$9.1MCAREER
24 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWWWWW
Navarro E.
vs
Kostyuk M.

Emma Navarro faces Marta Kostyuk in the Wimbledon round of 32 on grass. Emma Navarro holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 4–0, defending last year's round of 16, a roughly 20-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:21 UTC
Navarro E.30%
Kostyuk M.70%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Kostyuk M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Navarro E.
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Kostyuk M.
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.2+18 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.8Grass Elo 1737
2.8Overall Elo 1850
ELO gap
7.2Overall Elo 2057
7.8Leads 2–0 on grass
H2H
2.2Trails 0–2 on grass
7.88 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
4.64 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Navarro E.Rising
Kostyuk M.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

14 vs 20 matches

Statistics

This season
Navarro E.Kostyuk M.
1st serve in·Even
61%
60%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
64%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
48%
Service points won·Even
58%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
41%
50%
Break points saved·Slight edge
52%
61%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.9
3.0
Double faults / match·Even
3.9
3.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (14 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Navarro E.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Kostyuk M.

Kostyuk M.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Navarro E.

Serve advantage — Kostyuk M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Navarro E.Kostyuk M.
Clutch Rating·Even
91
94
Break points saved·Slight edge
88
93
Break points won·Even
99
98
Deciding sets·Even
94
98
Tiebreaks·Even
87
87

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Navarro E.Kostyuk M.
Freshness·Dominant
62
92

Navarro E.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d) · Kostyuk M.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
23°CPartly cloudy
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 53%

Head to head

4–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-06-22Bad HomburgR32grassEmma Navarro6-2 7-5
2025-06-16BerlinR32grassEmma Navarro6-2 6-3
2024-08-26US OpenR32hardEmma Navarro6-4 4-6 6-3
2024-08-05TorontoR16hardEmma Navarro7-5 7-5
View full head-to-head →
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kostovic T.
6-26-3
Oliynykova O.
Kessler M.
0-60-6
Ostapenko J.
Dart H.
6-33-66-4
Ruzic A.
Semenistaja D.
6-33-66-3
Fernandez L.[22]
Tjen J.
1-66-73
Xu M.
Kasatkina D.
2-66-32-6
Gasanova A.
Arango E.
6-36-1
Jacquemot E.
Osaka N.[14]
1-65-7
Muchova K.[10]
Zakharova A.
6-36-2
Andreescu B.
Zhang S.
6-736-76
Parks A.
Dudeney A.
6-36-3
Sawangkaew M.
Chwalinska M.[20]
2-67-56-2
Siniakova K.[32]
Zheng Q.
6-46-4
Stearns P.
Bartunkova N.
4-66-35-7
Krejcikova B.
Klugman H.
6-16-4
Linette M.
Andreeva M.[5]
5-74-6
Pegula J.[4]
Vidmanova D.
7-56-3
Sorribes Tormo S.
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
6-26-3
Yastremska D.
Ito A.
7-614-67-5
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Potapova A.[27]
6-26-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Udvardy P.
6-46-2
Tararudee L.
Tagger L.
7-635-76-4
Putintseva Y.
Maria T.
4-64-6
J. Cristian
Jovic I.[16]
6-710-6
Bencic B.[11]
Stojsavljevic M.
6-26-1
Wang X.
Cocciaretto E.
6-32-66-2
Jones F.
Parry D.
4-64-6
Frech M.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-754-6
Li A.[28]
Sonmez Z.
5-76-14-6
Liu C.
Vandewinkel H.
4-66-36-4
Sierra S.
Bondar A.
6-35-77-5
Korpatsch T.
Gauff C.[7]
2-61-6
Svitolina E.[8]
Snigur D.
5-72-6
Erjavec V.
Jeanjean L.
4-66-46-76
Tomljanovic A.
Bolkvadze M.
2-66-24-6
Krueger A.
Vekic D.[31]
3-67-636-4
Navarro E.[23]
Badosa P.
4-66-37-5
Selekhmeteva O.
Kraus S.
6-17-5
Starodubtseva Y.
Blinkova A.
7-634-61-6
N. Podoroska
Kostyuk M.[12]
1-62-6
Paolini J.[13]
Montgomery R.
0-66-47-5
Shymanovich I.
Golubic V.
2-66-21-6
Kalinina A.
Rakhimova K.
6-44-65-7
Sakkari M.
Tauson C.[24]
6-36-3
Eala A.[29]
Zarazua R.
6-16-2
S. Williams
Joint M.
3-67-663-6
Valentova T.
Pliskova K.
3-64-6
Townsend T.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-66-23-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Gjorcheska L.
6-36-2
Marcinko P.
Kenin S.
6-744-6
Begu I.
Swan K.
4-64-6
Day K.
Keys M.[26]
7-654-63-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Bejlek S.
6-17-66
Birrell K.
Korneeva A.
6-30-66-2
Osorio C.
Waltert S.
6-26-1
Seidel E.
Noskova L.[9]
4-63-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Lys E.
7-56-1
Kudermetova P.
Samsonova L.
3-63-6
Boulter K.
Grant T.
4-62-6
Gibson T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
1-66-32-6
Mertens E.[25]
Siegemund L.
6-26-4
Haddad Maia B.
Timofeeva M.
3-62-6
Ruse E.
Mcnally C.
5-73-6
Boisson L.
Rybakina E.[2]
4-66-13-6
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kessler M.
6-17-69
Ostapenko J.
Ruzic A.
6-26-0
Tjen J.
Kasatkina D.
7-651-64-6
Gasanova A.
Osaka N.[14]
3-62-6
Muchova K.[10]
Zhang S.
6-36-2
Parks A.
Sawangkaew M.
5-70-6
Siniakova K.[32]
Bartunkova N.
2-64-6
Krejcikova B.
Andreeva M.[5]
4-67-56-4
Pegula J.[4]
Sorribes Tormo S.
7-666-1
Yastremska D.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
3-67-612-6
Alexandrova E.[18]
Tararudee L.
7-57-5
Maria T.
Jovic I.[16]
1-62-6
Bencic B.[11]
Wang X.
7-56-0
Parry D.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
4-66-36-78
Sonmez Z.
Liu C.
5-73-6
Sierra S.
Gauff C.[7]
3-66-36-77
Snigur D.
Jeanjean L.
6-46-3
Bolkvadze M.
Krueger A.
1-60-6
Navarro E.[23]
Selekhmeteva O.
3-66-46-1
Blinkova A.
Kostyuk M.
7-653-63-6
Paolini J.
Golubic V.
7-606-4
Rakhimova K.
Sakkari M.
3-66-06-77
Eala A.
Joint M.
3-66-26-0
Pliskova K.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-63-6
Anisimova A.
Kenin S.
6-24-67-63
Swan K.
Keys M.
1-64-6
Cirstea S.
Birrell K.
6-36-4
Osorio C.
Noskova L.
3-66-42-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Samsonova L.
4-66-42-6
Grant T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
5-73-6
Mertens E.
Timofeeva M.
2-66-36-0
Mcnally C.
Rybakina E.
1-62-6
Sabalenka A.
Ostapenko J.
Kasatkina D.
Osaka N.
Muchova K.
Sawangkaew M.
Bartunkova N.
Krejcikova B.
Pegula J.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Alexandrova E.
Jovic I.
Bencic B.[11]
Kalinskaya A.[19]
Liu C.
Gauff C.
Snigur D.
Krueger A.
Navarro E.
Kostyuk M.
Paolini J.
Sakkari M.
Eala A.
Swiatek I.
Anisimova A.
Keys M.
Cirstea S.
Noskova L.
Samsonova L.
Bouzkova M.
Mertens E.
Rybakina E.
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