Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro — Bad Homburg Round of 16

Bad Homburg · WTA · Round of 16
Iga Swiatek
POL1
Iga Swiatek
#9WTA
2064ELO
1909Grass ELO
$3.6MYTD
$47MCAREER
25 yrs · 176 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWWW
1 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
grass
Emma Navarro
USA
Emma Navarro
#23WTA
1866ELO
1774Grass ELO
$1.8MYTD
$7.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWLLW
Swiatek I.
5-7 6-2 3-6
Navarro E.
Swiatek I.
5631
Navarro E.
7262

Emma Navarro defeated Iga Swiatek 7-5, 2-6, 6-3 in the Round of 16 at the Bad Homburg grass tournament. Both players converted four service breaks apiece during the match. The win advanced Navarro to the next round.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Around the match

  • “The heat made the match fast and gave little rhythm. It came down to the serve a lot. That's what got me through in the end.”

    Navarro E.tennisnet.com ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above. Lines marked “Umpiry summary” are written by Umpiry from the linked article, not quoted from it.

Key context

  • Match story: Emma Navarro closed it out in three sets, 7–5 2–6 6–3.

Head to head

1–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-09-24BeijingR16hardEmma Navarro6-4 4-6 6-0
2025-01-13Australian OpenQFhardIga Swiatek6-1 6-2
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Swiatek I.Navarro E.
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
47%
Service points won·Even
61%
59%
Return points won·Slight edge
49%
43%
Break points saved·Even
55%
58%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.3
3.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.0
3.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Swiatek I.Navarro E.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
97
73
Break points saved·Dominant
87
48
Break points won·Even
100
97
Deciding sets·Slight edge
95
89
Tiebreaks·Dominant
98
68

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Swiatek I.81%
Navarro E.19%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Swiatek I. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Swiatek I.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Navarro E.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.1+88 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Grass Elo 1611
7.8Overall Elo 1980
ELO gap
2.2Overall Elo 1760
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
9.39 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.88 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3.0Clay → Grass
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Swiatek I.Navarro E.
Freshness·Even
100
97

Swiatek I.: 15 days rest · Navarro E.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
34°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 30%

Draw