Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro — Bad Homburg Round of 16
POL
USA
Swiatek I.
Iga Swiatek faces Emma Navarro in the Bad Homburg round of 16 on grass. Iga Swiatek holds the paper edge — ranked #3, defending last year's final, a roughly 210-point grass Elo advantage. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1, though this is their first meeting on grass.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 13:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Swiatek I. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Fatigue load: Emma Navarro carries the heavier recent load — 4 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
- Head-to-head: The head-to-head is level 1–1; this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Beijing 2025.
- Stage: Iga Swiatek defends last year's final; Emma Navarro defends last year's quarter-final.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (12 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadNavarro E.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 106 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-24 | Beijing | R16 | hard | Emma Navarro | 6-4 4-6 6-0 |
| 2025-01-13 | Australian Open | QF | hard | Iga Swiatek | 6-1 6-2 |