Ashlyn Krueger vs Marta KostyukWimbledon Round of 16

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 16
#56WTA
1791ELO
1717Grass ELO
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Monday, 6 July 2026 ·
grass
No.2 Court · 1st on
#11WTA
2057ELO
1737Grass ELO
$3.5MYTD
$10MCAREER
24 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWLWWW
Krueger A.
4-6 4-6
Kostyuk M.
Krueger A.
440
Kostyuk M.
662

Marta Kostyuk advanced to the quarterfinals of Wimbledon with a 6-4, 6-4 victory over Ashlyn Krueger in the Round of 16. Kostyuk converted 40% of her break points and won four service breaks to Krueger's two. Kostyuk also had more aces, fewer double faults, and a higher first-serve win percentage than Krueger.

Around the match

  • I was looking where to go, and then I had very random meeting with my stylist, and I told her that I want to go to Greece. She said, 'Oh, you should go to Hydra. You're going to love it.'

    Kostyuk M.WTA Tennis
  • I turned to Sandra, and I go, 'Can you please tell me, honestly, right now, if you think that grass suits my game?' She said, '100%.'

    Kostyuk M.WTA Tennis

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Marta Kostyuk edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-01-06AdelaideR32hardAshlyn Krueger4-6 6-2 6-2

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
48%
Service points won·Even
59%
61%
Return points won·Even
45%
48%
Break points saved·Even
61%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.8
3.5
Double faults / match·Even
4.5
4.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (44 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
59
86
Break points saved·Dominant
39
72
Break points won·Slight edge
85
94
Deciding sets·Slight edge
87
95
Tiebreaks·Dominant
44
80

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Krueger A.25%
Kostyuk M.75%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Kostyuk M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7Grass Elo 1711
Surface ELO
5.3+27 Grass Elo edge
1.5Overall Elo 1779
ELO gap
8.5Overall Elo 2057
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
10.010 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.65 of last 10 on grass
10.011-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Opponent rise
2.0Opponent hot: 10 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
95
66

Krueger A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Kostyuk M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 55 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°CPartly cloudy
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 37%

Draw