Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro — Nottingham Quarter-final
USA
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro faces Emma Navarro in the Nottingham quarter-final on grass. Emma Navarro is the paper favourite — ranked #25, a roughly 120-point grass Elo advantage — but Jessica Bouzas Maneiro has won their only previous meeting, though none on grass.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:22 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Navarro E. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Emma Navarro has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 87 vs 53).
- Freshness: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro comes in with 2 days of rest and 36 games in 14d, vs Emma Navarro's 2 and 56.
- Last match: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro advanced when Katie Volynets retired.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (17 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on grass
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadBouzas Maneiro J.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 36 games (7d) · Navarro E.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 56 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-26 | Roland Garros | R128 | clay | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | 6-0 6-1 |