Jasmine Paolini vs Marta KostyukCincinnati Round of 64

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 64
#17WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 14 August 2023
hard
#13WTA
2057ELO
1968Hard ELO
$2.3MYTD
$9.1MCAREER
24 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWW
Paolini J.
6-2 6-1
Kostyuk M.
Paolini J.
662
Kostyuk M.
210

Jasmine Paolini defeated Marta Kostyuk 6-2 6-1 in the Cincinnati round of 64 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Marta Kostyuk came in ranked #13, defending last year's round of 32. Jasmine Paolini extended the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-07-08WimbledonQFgrassMarta Kostyuk6-3 6-2
2022-10-10Cluj NapocaR32hardJasmine Paolini5-7 6-3 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Paolini J.serving67% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Kostyuk M.

Kostyuk M.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Paolini J.Kostyuk M.
31
Serve
53
55
Return
57

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
68%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
61%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
45%
Service points won·Even
57%
57%
Return points won·Even
45%
46%
Break points saved·Even
55%
57%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.4
3.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.8
6.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 163). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
89
92
Break points saved·Slight edge
87
93
Break points won·Even
99
98
Deciding sets·Even
97
98
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
93
85

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.2Hard Elo 1873
Surface ELO
5.8+95 Hard Elo edge
3.8Overall Elo 1905
ELO gap
6.2Overall Elo 2057
10.0
H2H
0.0
4.2
Surface form
5.5
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
8.3
Minutes 14d
5.6
3-set count
4.0
9.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
72
65

Paolini J.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 61 games (7d) · Kostyuk M.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 82 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
23°CRain
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 92%

Draw