Claire Liu vs Hanne Vandewinkel — Wimbledon Round of 128
Liu C.
Claire Liu faces Hanne Vandewinkel in the Wimbledon round of 128 on grass. Hanne Vandewinkel is the paper favourite — ranked #100, a roughly 60-point grass Elo advantage — but Claire Liu arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 4 on grass to Hanne Vandewinkel's 2.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 13:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Vandewinkel H. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Claire Liu 60 games in 14 days, Hanne Vandewinkel 19.
- Under pressure: Hanne Vandewinkel has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 79 vs Claire Liu's 58).
- Surface form: Claire Liu 3 of 4, Hanne Vandewinkel 2 of 4 on grass recently — Claire Liu the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadLiu C.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 60 games (7d) · Vandewinkel H.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.