Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu — Wimbledon Round of 64

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 64

TUR

#51WTA

1788ELO

1670Grass ELO

24 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWWWLWWWL

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Sets

Wednesday, 1 July 2026 · 11:00

grass

USA

#146WTA

1640ELO

1499Grass ELO

26 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWWLLWWWW

Sonmez Z.

vs

Liu C.

Zeynep Sonmez faces Claire Liu in the Wimbledon round of 64 on grass. Zeynep Sonmez is the paper favourite — ranked #51, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 170-point grass Elo advantage — but Claire Liu rides a 4-match win streak. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC

Sonmez Z.84%

Liu C.16%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Sonmez Z. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Zeynep Sonmez comes in with 4 days of rest and 143 games in 14d, vs Claire Liu's 4 and 60.
Under pressure: In the tight moments, Zeynep Sonmez has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 87 vs 58).
Last match: Claire Liu dropped the opening set before beating Hanne Vandewinkel 4–6 6–3 6–4.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

7.2

Strong advantageUmpiry Score

6.1

Even matchUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

7.1+171 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

2.9Grass Elo 1499

5.3Overall Elo 1788

ELO gap

4.7Overall Elo 1640

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

7.17 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

6.05 of last 10 on grass

Win streak

7.04-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

0.04 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

Context

6.0Reached the R32 here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10

Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Sonmez Z.Stable

Liu C.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

22 vs 27 matches

Statistics

This season

Sonmez Z.Liu C.

1st serve in·Slight edge

62%

69%

1st serve points won·Even

63%

59%

2nd serve points won·Even

48%

45%

Service points won·Even

57%

55%

Return points won·Even

46%

48%

Break points saved·Even

56%

54%

Aces / match·Even

2.0

2.4

Double faults / match·Even

2.5

2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Sonmez Z.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Liu C.

Liu C.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Sonmez Z.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Sonmez Z.Liu C.

Clutch Rating·Dominant

87

58

Break points saved·Clear edge

80

64

Break points won·Clear edge

97

78

Deciding sets·Clear edge

93

79

Tiebreaks·Dominant

91

54

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Sonmez Z.Liu C.

Freshness·Slight edge

71

78

Sonmez Z.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 45 games (7d) · Liu C.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 60 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-fastrewards aggression

SlowFast

Weather forecast

21°COvercast

Wind 13 km/hHumidity 55%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

R128

R64

R32

R16

Quarter-finals

Semi-finals

Final

Sabalenka A.[1]

Fernandez L.[22]

Sorribes Tormo S.

Jimenez Kasintseva V.

Bouzas Maneiro J.

Stojsavljevic M.

Svitolina E.[8]

Selekhmeteva O.

Starodubtseva Y.

Anisimova A.[6]

Shnaider D.[15]

Bouzkova M.[21]

Sabalenka A.

Kessler M.

Tjen J.

Kasatkina D.

Gasanova A.

Osaka N.

Muchova K.

Zhang S.

Siniakova K.

Bartunkova N.

Krejcikova B.

Andreeva M.

Sorribes Tormo S.

Yastremska D.

Bouzas Maneiro J.

Alexandrova E.

Tararudee L.

Parry D.

Kalinskaya A.

Sonmez Z.

Liu C.

Sierra S.

Gauff C.

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