Karolina Muchova vs Shuai Zhang — Wimbledon Round of 64

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 64
Karolina Muchova
CZE10
Karolina Muchova
#9WTA
2041ELO
1774Grass ELO
$1.8MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWLWLWW
—
Sets
Wednesday, 1 July 2026 ·
grass
Shuai Zhang
CHN
Shuai Zhang
#64WTA
1725ELO
1631Grass ELO
37 yrs · 177 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWWLWWLL
Muchova K.
vs
Zhang S.

Karolina Muchova faces Shuai Zhang in the Wimbledon round of 64 on grass. Karolina Muchova holds the paper edge — ranked #9, leading the head-to-head 3–0, defending last year's round of 128.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTC
Muchova K.86%
Zhang S.14%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Muchova K. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Muchova K.
7.9
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Zhang S.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.8+143 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.2Grass Elo 1631
8.2Overall Elo 2041
ELO gap
1.8Overall Elo 1725
7.0Leads 1–0 on grass
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on grass
7.87 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.86 of last 10 on grass
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Country comfort
4.5Won 41% in GBR (29)
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Muchova K.Stable
Zhang S.Surging

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 24 matches

Statistics

This season
Muchova K.Zhang S.
1st serve in·Even
66%
68%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
60%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
56%
Return points won·Even
43%
42%
Break points saved·Even
60%
58%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.2
2.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.1
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Muchova K.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Zhang S.

Zhang S.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Muchova K.

Serve advantage — Muchova K.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Muchova K.Zhang S.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
93
60
Break points saved·Dominant
98
55
Break points won·Slight edge
94
83
Deciding sets·Clear edge
97
78
Tiebreaks·Dominant
99
73

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Muchova K.Zhang S.
Freshness·Dominant
69
94

Muchova K.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 67 games (7d) · Zhang S.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast

Head to head

3–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-16BerlinR32grassKarolina Muchova1-6 3-6
2021-06-28WimbledonR128grassKarolina Muchova6-3 6-3
2020-10-19OstravaR32hardKarolina Muchova6-1 6-1
View full head-to-head →
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kostovic T.
6-26-3
Oliynykova O.
Kessler M.
0-60-6
Ostapenko J.
Dart H.
6-33-66-4
Ruzic A.
Semenistaja D.
6-33-66-3
Fernandez L.[22]
Tjen J.
1-66-73
Xu M.
Kasatkina D.
2-66-32-6
Gasanova A.
Arango E.
6-36-1
Jacquemot E.
Osaka N.[14]
1-65-7
Muchova K.[10]
Zakharova A.
6-36-2
Andreescu B.
Zhang S.
6-736-76
Parks A.
Dudeney A.
6-36-3
Sawangkaew M.
Chwalinska M.[20]
2-67-56-2
Siniakova K.[32]
Zheng Q.
6-46-4
Stearns P.
Bartunkova N.
4-66-35-7
Krejcikova B.
Klugman H.
6-16-4
Linette M.
Andreeva M.[5]
5-74-6
Pegula J.[4]
Vidmanova D.
7-56-3
Sorribes Tormo S.
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
6-26-3
Yastremska D.
Ito A.
7-614-67-5
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Potapova A.[27]
6-26-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Udvardy P.
6-46-2
Tararudee L.
Tagger L.
7-635-76-4
Putintseva Y.
Maria T.
4-64-6
J. Cristian
Jovic I.[16]
6-710-6
Bencic B.[11]
Stojsavljevic M.
6-26-1
Wang X.
Cocciaretto E.
6-32-66-2
Jones F.
Parry D.
4-64-6
Frech M.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-754-6
Li A.[28]
Sonmez Z.
5-76-14-6
Liu C.
Vandewinkel H.
4-66-36-4
Sierra S.
Bondar A.
6-35-77-5
Korpatsch T.
Gauff C.[7]
2-61-6
Svitolina E.[8]
Snigur D.
Erjavec V.
Jeanjean L.
Tomljanovic A.
Bolkvadze M.
Krueger A.
Vekic D.[31]
Navarro E.[23]
Badosa P.
Selekhmeteva O.
Kraus S.
Starodubtseva Y.
Blinkova A.
N. Podoroska
Kostyuk M.[12]
Paolini J.[13]
Montgomery R.
Shymanovich I.
Golubic V.
Kalinina A.
Rakhimova K.
Sakkari M.
Tauson C.[24]
Eala A.[29]
Zarazua R.
S. Williams
Joint M.
Valentova T.
Pliskova K.
Townsend T.
Swiatek I.[3]
Anisimova A.[6]
Gjorcheska L.
Marcinko P.
Kenin S.
Begu I.
Swan K.
Day K.
Keys M.[26]
Cirstea S.[17]
Bejlek S.
Birrell K.
Korneeva A.
Osorio C.
Waltert S.
Seidel E.
Noskova L.[9]
Shnaider D.[15]
Lys E.
Kudermetova P.
Samsonova L.
Boulter K.
Grant T.
Gibson T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
Mertens E.[25]
Siegemund L.
Haddad Maia B.
Timofeeva M.
Ruse E.
Mcnally C.
Boisson L.
Rybakina E.[2]
Sabalenka A.
Kessler M.
Ostapenko J.
Ruzic A.
Tjen J.
Kasatkina D.
Gasanova A.
Osaka N.
Muchova K.
Zhang S.
Parks A.
Sawangkaew M.
Siniakova K.
Bartunkova N.
Krejcikova B.
Andreeva M.
Pegula J.[4]
Sorribes Tormo S.
Yastremska D.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Alexandrova E.
Tararudee L.
Maria T.
Jovic I.[16]
Bencic B.[11]
Wang X.
Parry D.
Kalinskaya A.
Sonmez Z.
Liu C.
Sierra S.
Gauff C.
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