Belinda Bencic vs Karolina MuchovaTokyo Quarter-final

Tokyo · WTA · Quarter-final
#14WTA
1989ELO
1952Hard ELO
$1.8MYTD
$17MCAREER
29 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 20 October 2025
hard
#6WTA
2066ELO
2034Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
Bencic B.
3-6 7-5 7-5
Muchova K.
Bencic B.
3772
Muchova K.
6551

Belinda Bencic defeated Karolina Muchova 3-6 7-5 7-5 in the Tokyo quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Karolina Muchova came in ranked #6. Belinda Bencic extended the head-to-head to 3–2.

Key context

Head to head

22
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-07-27MontrealR32hardKarolina Muchova6-7(2) 6-2 6-3
2023-02-20DubaiR16hardKarolina Muchova6-1 6-4
2022-04-28MadridR32clayBelinda Bencic6-3 4-6 7-5
2021-08-16CincinnatiR16hardBelinda Bencic7-5 2-1 RET

Serve vs return

This season
Bencic B.serving80% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Muchova K.

Muchova K.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Bencic B.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Bencic B.Muchova K.
57
Serve
70
55
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
50%
Service points won·Even
60%
61%
Return points won·Even
44%
42%
Break points saved·Even
60%
61%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.0
3.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.8
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (68 vs 61). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
88
95
Break points saved·Even
95
98
Break points won·Even
94
94
Deciding sets·Even
98
98
Tiebreaks·Even
98
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
3.9Hard Elo 1952
Surface ELO
6.1+82 Hard Elo edge
3.8Overall Elo 1989
ELO gap
6.2Overall Elo 2066
0.0
H2H
10.0
6.5
Surface form
5.9
Fatigue & Travel
2.5
Minutes 14d
5.4
4.0
3-set count
4.0
4.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
85
56

Bencic B.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d) · Muchova K.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 80 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
20°COvercast
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 81%