Elena Rybakina vs Shuai ZhangBrisbane Round of 32

Brisbane · WTA · Round of 32
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 4 January 2026
hard
#64WTA
1718ELO
1695Hard ELO
37 yrs · 177 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWLWWL
Rybakina E.
6-3 7-5
Zhang S.
Rybakina E.
672
Zhang S.
350

Elena Rybakina defeated Shuai Zhang 6-3 7-5 in the Brisbane round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Elena Rybakina came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 2–1. Elena Rybakina extended the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

Head to head

21
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-01-17Australian OpenR64hardShuai Zhang6-4 1-0 RET
2020-09-21StrasbourgQFclayElena Rybakina6-3 6-2
2020-01-13HobartFhardElena Rybakina7-6(7) 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Rybakina E.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Zhang S.

Zhang S.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Rybakina E.

Serve advantage — Rybakina E.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Rybakina E.Zhang S.
100
Serve
17
34
Return
58

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
60%
68%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
72%
60%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
52%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
64%
56%
Return points won·Even
41%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
58%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.5
2.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.3
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
92
62
Break points saved·Dominant
98
55
Break points won·Clear edge
96
83
Deciding sets·Clear edge
97
78
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
93
82

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 64 days (−1.2)
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 27 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
10.0+415 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.0Hard Elo 1695
10.0Overall Elo 2122
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1718
5.0
H2H
5.0
9.3
Surface form
7.2
9.06-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
6.7
Country comfort
5.4
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
91
96

Rybakina E.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Zhang S.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw