Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart — Wimbledon Round of 128

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 128
Jelena Ostapenko
LAT
Jelena Ostapenko
#35WTA
1852ELO
1765Grass ELO
$1.2MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 177 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWLWLWWL
—
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
grass
Harriet Dart
GBR
Harriet Dart
#151WTA
1620ELO
1545Grass ELO
29 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLWLLLWLW
Ostapenko J.
vs
Dart H.

Jelena Ostapenko faces Harriet Dart in the Wimbledon round of 128 on grass. Jelena Ostapenko holds the paper edge — ranked #35, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 128.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:20 UTC
Ostapenko J.84%
Dart H.16%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Ostapenko J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Ostapenko J.
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Dart H.
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.8+220 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.2Grass Elo 1545
6.9Overall Elo 1852
ELO gap
3.1Overall Elo 1620
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
6.06 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
1.72 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
6.1Won 69% in GBR (61)
Country comfort
6.6Home country · 13/30 here
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Ostapenko J.Stable
Dart H.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

20 vs 28 matches

Statistics

This season
Ostapenko J.Dart H.
1st serve in·Even
59%
55%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
42%
47%
Service points won·Even
55%
58%
Return points won·Even
45%
47%
Break points saved·Even
49%
50%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.5
1.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.1
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Ostapenko J.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Dart H.

Dart H.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Ostapenko J.

Serve advantage — Dart H.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Ostapenko J.Dart H.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
88
55
Break points saved·Dominant
79
37
Break points won·Clear edge
100
87
Deciding sets·Clear edge
96
84
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
87
68

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Ostapenko J.Dart H.
Freshness·Slight edge
71
79

Ostapenko J.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 55 games (7d) · Dart H.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
18°CPartly cloudy
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 55%

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-06-26EastbourneR16grassJelena Ostapenko6-3 6-4

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Timofeeva M.[1]
Osuigwe W.
6-16-4
Rus A.
Podrez V.
4-64-6
Monnet C.
Prozorova T.
2-64-6
Watson H.
Sherif M.[21]
6-26-2
Krueger A.[2]
Knutson G.
7-57-5
Hontama M.
Urhobo A.
7-666-3
Iatcenko P.
Romero Gormaz L.
6-06-3
Bai Z.
Zidansek T.[26]
6-27-5
Korneeva A.
Shubladze A.
2-67-626-3
Brancaccio N.
Lazaro Garcia A.
3-64-6
Riera J.
D. Britton
2-66-26-4
Crawley F.
Sakatsume H.[19]
7-54-67-68
Wang X.
Guo H.
7-646-3
Radivojevic L.
Bassols Ribera M.
7-6102-66-77
Dolehide C.
Montgomery R.
4-66-71
Mcdonald E.
Kalieva E.[31]
6-36-744-6
Volynets K.[5]
Samson L.
7-656-1
Miyazaki Y.
Yaneva E.
2-64-6
Gorgodze E.
Valdmannova V.
6-27-62
You X.
Jeanjean L.[23]
6-42-63-6
Semenistaja D.[6]
Siskova A.
7-621-67-5
Hon P.
Hibino N.
2-62-6
Lepchenko V.
Gasanova A.
6-21-66-710
Fruhvirtova L.
Jones E.[29]
2-61-6
Quevedo K.[7]
Ishii S.
6-06-3
Papamichail D.
Liu C.
2-61-6
Tubello A.
Pridankina E.
2-60-6
Rajecki A.
Lamens S.[27]
3-65-7
Uchijima M.
Adeshina E.
1-66-35-7
Tan H.
Pohankova M.
7-632-66-1
Naef C.
Garland J.
6-35-74-6
Grant T.
Preston T.[18]
6-12-66-4
Sun L.[9]
Klimovicova L.
7-637-5
Pigossi L.
Dodin O.
5-74-6
Koevermans A.
Sawangkaew M.
3-66-14-6
Cross K.
Stoiana M.[25]
3-64-6
Galfi D.[10]
Jorge F.
6-753-6
Fita Boluda A.
Gjorcheska L.
2-64-6
Mikulskyte J.
Zhao C.
6-37-66
Inglis M.
Bronzetti L.[20]
3-66-34-6
Kudermetova P.[11]
Ponchet J.
1-66-26-3
Friedsam A.
Ngounoue C.
3-65-7
Rame A.
Uebelhoer C.
3-67-52-6
Mandlik E.
Charaeva A.[22]
2-64-6
Grabher J.[12]
Bolkvadze M.
4-66-76
Kinoshita H.
Tomova V.
7-56-3
Carle M.
Havlickova L.
7-55-76-4
Vandromme J.
Yuan Y.
4-66-06-2
Salkova D.[13]
Shymanovich I.
6-756-34-6
Minnen G.
Ferro F.
6-36-1
Sebov K.
Ortenzi J.
4-66-36-2
Noha Akugue N.
Pigato L.[28]
7-626-3
Kawa K.[14]
Bandecchi S.
6-16-3
Giovannini L.
Stefanini L.
6-766-75
Ma Y.
Andreeva E.
0-63-6
Brace C.
Day K.[32]
4-63-6
Sasnovich A.[15]
Dunne K.
1-66-36-2
S. Hunter
Costoulas S.
7-56-4
Andreescu B.
Hercog P.
6-46-2
Masarova R.
Teichmann J.[24]
6-724-6
Sramkova R.[16]
Hruncakova V.
7-657-63
Ku Y.
Kostovic T.
1-64-6
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Lee C.
6-44-66-3
Barthel M.
Zhu L.[30]
4-63-6
Timofeeva M.[1]
Podrez V.
6-46-2
Prozorova T.
Watson H.
7-53-65-7
Krueger A.[2]
Hontama M.
6-35-76-3
Iatcenko P.
Bai Z.
7-676-2
Korneeva A.
Lazaro Garcia A.
6-26-757-5
Riera J.
Crawley F.
2-66-36-71
Wang X.
Bassols Ribera M.
6-31-60-4
Montgomery R.
Kalieva E.[31]
6-26-2
Volynets K.[5]
E. Yaneva
6-16-4
Gorgodze E.
Jeanjean L.[23]
3-62-6
Semenistaja D.[6]
Hibino N.
6-41-66-2
Gasanova A.
Jones E.[29]
5-76-46-3
Quevedo K.[7]
Liu C.
4-64-6
Pridankina E.
Lamens S.[27]
7-54-66-3
Adeshina E.
Tan H.
2-62-6
Garland J.
Grant T.
4-64-6
Sun L.[9]
Dodin O.
6-7106-75
Sawangkaew M.
Stoiana M.[25]
2-66-47-5
Jorge F.
Gjorcheska L.
7-52-61-6
Mikulskyte J.
Bronzetti L.[20]
3-63-6
Kudermetova P.[11]
Ngounoue C.
6-16-2
Uebelhoer C.
Charaeva A.[22]
7-54-60-6
Bolkvadze M.
Kinoshita H.
6-36-2
Carle M.
Vandromme J.
7-614-63-6
Shymanovich I.
Minnen G.
6-46-2
Sebov K.
Noha Akugue N.
6-45-77-5
Kawa K.[14]
Stefanini L.
6-42-66-2
Andreeva E.
Day K.[32]
2-62-6
Sasnovich A.[15]
S. Hunter
5-76-17-5
Andreescu B.
Teichmann J.[24]
6-746-16-4
Sramkova R.[16]
Kostovic T.
6-46-744-6
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Zhu L.[30]
2-63-6
Timofeeva M.[1]
Watson H.
3-66-26-1
Krueger A.[2]
Iatcenko P.
7-686-1
Korneeva A.
Crawley F.
6-26-0
Bassols Ribera M.
Montgomery R.
6-31-61-6
Volynets K.[5]
Jeanjean L.[23]
3-64-6
Semenistaja D.[6]
Gasanova A.
4-62-6
Liu C.
Pridankina E.
6-24-66-1
Tan H.
Grant T.
4-66-75
Dodin O.
Sawangkaew M.
7-55-71-6
Gjorcheska L.
Bronzetti L.[20]
6-16-2
Kudermetova P.[11]
Charaeva A.[22]
4-66-46-1
Bolkvadze M.
Vandromme J.
6-44-66-3
Shymanovich I.
Sebov K.
4-66-37-65
Kawa K.[14]
Day K.[32]
2-65-7
Sasnovich A.[15]
Andreescu B.
3-66-74
Kostovic T.
Zhu L.[30]
6-36-4