Jasmine Paolini vs Maria Sakkari — Wimbledon Round of 32

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 32
Jasmine Paolini
ITA
Jasmine Paolini
#17WTA
1922ELO
1770Grass ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLWLLWLW
—
Sets
Saturday, 4 July 2026 ·
grass
Maria Sakkari
GRE
Maria Sakkari
#43WTA
1812ELO
1631Grass ELO
$901kYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLLWWLLL
Paolini J.
vs
Sakkari M.

Jasmine Paolini faces Maria Sakkari in the Wimbledon round of 32 on grass. Jasmine Paolini is the paper favourite — ranked #17, defending last year's round of 64, a roughly 140-point grass Elo advantage — but Maria Sakkari has won 3 of their 5 previous meetings, though none on grass.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:21 UTC
Paolini J.71%
Sakkari M.29%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Paolini J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Paolini J.
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Sakkari M.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.7+140 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.3Grass Elo 1631
6.4Overall Elo 1922
ELO gap
3.6Overall Elo 1812
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
6.26 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.35 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Country comfort
5.1Won 52% in GBR (27)
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R64 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Paolini J.Stable
Sakkari M.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

13 vs 11 matches

Statistics

This season
Paolini J.Sakkari M.
1st serve in·Even
66%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
58%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
47%
Service points won·Even
55%
57%
Return points won·Even
43%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
56%
64%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.5
1.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.0
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (13 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Paolini J.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Sakkari M.

Sakkari M.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Paolini J.Sakkari M.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
93
79
Break points saved·Slight edge
87
94
Break points won·Clear edge
99
87
Deciding sets·Clear edge
97
74
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
92
81

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Paolini J.Sakkari M.
Freshness·Slight edge
79
90

Paolini J.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d) · Sakkari M.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
23°CPartly cloudy
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 53%

Head to head

2–3
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-08DohaR32hardMaria Sakkari6-4 6-2
2025-08-07CincinnatiR64hardJasmine Paolini7-6(2) 7-6(5)
2025-04-22MadridR32clayMaria Sakkari6-2 6-1
2024-02-19DubaiR16hardJasmine Paolini6-4 6-2
2021-05-31Roland GarrosR64clayMaria Sakkari6-2 6-3
View full head-to-head →
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kostovic T.
6-26-3
Oliynykova O.
Kessler M.
0-60-6
Ostapenko J.
Dart H.
6-33-66-4
Ruzic A.
Semenistaja D.
6-33-66-3
Fernandez L.[22]
Tjen J.
1-66-73
Xu M.
Kasatkina D.
2-66-32-6
Gasanova A.
Arango E.
6-36-1
Jacquemot E.
Osaka N.[14]
1-65-7
Muchova K.[10]
Zakharova A.
6-36-2
Andreescu B.
Zhang S.
6-736-76
Parks A.
Dudeney A.
6-36-3
Sawangkaew M.
Chwalinska M.[20]
2-67-56-2
Siniakova K.[32]
Zheng Q.
6-46-4
Stearns P.
Bartunkova N.
4-66-35-7
Krejcikova B.
Klugman H.
6-16-4
Linette M.
Andreeva M.[5]
5-74-6
Pegula J.[4]
Vidmanova D.
7-56-3
Sorribes Tormo S.
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
6-26-3
Yastremska D.
Ito A.
7-614-67-5
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Potapova A.[27]
6-26-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Udvardy P.
6-46-2
Tararudee L.
Tagger L.
7-635-76-4
Putintseva Y.
Maria T.
4-64-6
J. Cristian
Jovic I.[16]
6-710-6
Bencic B.[11]
Stojsavljevic M.
6-26-1
Wang X.
Cocciaretto E.
6-32-66-2
Jones F.
Parry D.
4-64-6
Frech M.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-754-6
Li A.[28]
Sonmez Z.
5-76-14-6
Liu C.
Vandewinkel H.
4-66-36-4
Sierra S.
Bondar A.
6-35-77-5
Korpatsch T.
Gauff C.[7]
2-61-6
Svitolina E.[8]
Snigur D.
5-72-6
Erjavec V.
Jeanjean L.
4-66-46-76
Tomljanovic A.
Bolkvadze M.
2-66-24-6
Krueger A.
Vekic D.[31]
3-67-636-4
Navarro E.[23]
Badosa P.
4-66-37-5
Selekhmeteva O.
Kraus S.
6-17-5
Starodubtseva Y.
Blinkova A.
7-634-61-6
N. Podoroska
Kostyuk M.[12]
1-62-6
Paolini J.[13]
Montgomery R.
0-66-47-5
Shymanovich I.
Golubic V.
2-66-21-6
Kalinina A.
Rakhimova K.
6-44-65-7
Sakkari M.
Tauson C.[24]
6-36-3
Eala A.[29]
Zarazua R.
6-16-2
S. Williams
Joint M.
3-67-663-6
Valentova T.
Pliskova K.
3-64-6
Townsend T.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-66-23-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Gjorcheska L.
6-36-2
Marcinko P.
Kenin S.
6-744-6
Begu I.
Swan K.
4-64-6
Day K.
Keys M.[26]
7-654-63-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Bejlek S.
6-17-66
Birrell K.
Korneeva A.
6-30-66-2
Osorio C.
Waltert S.
6-26-1
Seidel E.
Noskova L.[9]
4-63-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Lys E.
7-56-1
Kudermetova P.
Samsonova L.
3-63-6
Boulter K.
Grant T.
4-62-6
Gibson T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
1-66-32-6
Mertens E.[25]
Siegemund L.
6-26-4
Haddad Maia B.
Timofeeva M.
3-62-6
Ruse E.
Mcnally C.
5-73-6
Boisson L.
Rybakina E.[2]
4-66-13-6
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kessler M.
6-17-69
Ostapenko J.
Ruzic A.
6-26-0
Tjen J.
Kasatkina D.
7-651-64-6
Gasanova A.
Osaka N.[14]
3-62-6
Muchova K.[10]
Zhang S.
6-36-2
Parks A.
Sawangkaew M.
5-70-6
Siniakova K.[32]
Bartunkova N.
2-64-6
Krejcikova B.
Andreeva M.[5]
4-67-56-4
Pegula J.[4]
Sorribes Tormo S.
7-666-1
Yastremska D.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
3-67-612-6
Alexandrova E.[18]
Tararudee L.
7-57-5
Maria T.
Jovic I.[16]
1-62-6
Bencic B.[11]
Wang X.
7-56-0
Parry D.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
4-66-36-78
Sonmez Z.
Liu C.
5-73-6
Sierra S.
Gauff C.[7]
3-66-36-77
Snigur D.
Jeanjean L.
6-46-3
Bolkvadze M.
Krueger A.
1-60-6
Navarro E.[23]
Selekhmeteva O.
3-66-46-1
Blinkova A.
Kostyuk M.
7-653-63-6
Paolini J.
Golubic V.
7-606-4
Rakhimova K.
Sakkari M.
3-66-06-77
Eala A.
Joint M.
3-66-26-0
Pliskova K.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-63-6
Anisimova A.
Kenin S.
6-24-67-63
Swan K.
Keys M.
1-64-6
Cirstea S.
Birrell K.
6-36-4
Osorio C.
Noskova L.
3-66-42-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Samsonova L.
4-66-42-6
Grant T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
5-73-6
Mertens E.
Timofeeva M.
2-66-36-0
Mcnally C.
Rybakina E.
1-62-6
Sabalenka A.
Ostapenko J.
Kasatkina D.
Osaka N.
Muchova K.
Sawangkaew M.
Bartunkova N.
Krejcikova B.
Pegula J.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Alexandrova E.
Jovic I.
Bencic B.[11]
Kalinskaya A.[19]
Liu C.
Gauff C.
Snigur D.
Krueger A.
Navarro E.
Kostyuk M.
Paolini J.
Sakkari M.
Eala A.
Swiatek I.
Anisimova A.
Keys M.
Cirstea S.
Noskova L.
Samsonova L.
Bouzkova M.
Mertens E.
Rybakina E.
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—