Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria — Eastbourne Round of 32

Eastbourne · WTA · Round of 32
Jasmine Paolini
ITA1
Jasmine Paolini
#20WTA
1905ELO
1748Grass ELO
$2.0MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 23 June 2026 ·
grass
Tatjana Maria
GER
Tatjana Maria
#80WTA
1703ELO
1688Grass ELO
$748kYTD
$7.4MCAREER
39 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLWLWW
Paolini J.
4-6 3-6
Maria T.
Paolini J.
430
Maria T.
662

Tatjana Maria defeated Jasmine Paolini 6-4, 6-3 in the Round of 32 at Eastbourne. Maria served 4 aces to Paolini's 0 and won 80% of her first-serve points. Maria converted 25% of her break points and won 2 service breaks to Paolini's 1.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Around the match

  • “That was an amazing grass court season, but it's nice to be back here. I like this place, especially when the sun is out and the courts are really good.”

    Paolini J.LTA ↗

  • “I was happy that we played on grass. She's such a tough opponent, such a nice girl outside of the court. I see her every day and my kids love her so it was really a tough one playing a first round against each other. I didn't start very well but I found myself back in the match and I'm really happy about this (win).”

    Maria T.LTA ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above. Lines marked “Umpiry summary” are written by Umpiry from the linked article, not quoted from it.

Key context

  • Match story: Tatjana Maria closed it out in two sets, 6–4 6–3.

Head to head

2–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-03-06Indian WellsR64hardJasmine Paolini6-3 6-3
2024-01-15Australian OpenR64hardJasmine Paolini6-2 6-3
2023-03-06Indian WellsR128hardTatjana Maria7-5 6-1
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Paolini J.Maria T.
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
61%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
49%
44%
Service points won·Even
57%
58%
Return points won·Even
44%
43%
Break points saved·Even
60%
56%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.9
4.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 42). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Paolini J.Maria T.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
77
3
Break points saved·Dominant
46
4
Break points won·Clear edge
96
72
Deciding sets·Dominant
96
3
Tiebreaks·Dominant
87
17

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Paolini J.83%
Maria T.17%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Paolini J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Paolini J.
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Maria T.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.6Grass Elo 1563
Surface ELO
5.4+29 Grass Elo edge
8.0Overall Elo 1801
ELO gap
2.0Overall Elo 1562
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
6.67 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.67 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3.0Clay → Grass
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Paolini J.Maria T.
Freshness·Slight edge
100
92

Paolini J.: 18 days rest · Maria T.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
26°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 58%

Draw