Tatjana Maria vs Jasmine Paolini — Indian Wells Round of 128

Indian Wells · WTA · Round of 128
Tatjana Maria
GER
Tatjana Maria
#76WTA
1703ELO
1608Hard ELO
38 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 6 March 2023
hard
Jasmine Paolini
ITA
Jasmine Paolini
#15WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
Maria T.
7-5 6-1
Paolini J.
Maria T.
762
Paolini J.
510

Tatjana Maria defeated Jasmine Paolini 7-5 6-1 in the Indian Wells round of 128 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Jasmine Paolini came in ranked #15, leading the head-to-head 2–1, defending last year's round of 32. Tatjana Maria narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

  • Match story: Tatjana Maria came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 7–5 6–1.

Head to head

1–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-23EastbourneR32grassTatjana Maria4-6 3-6
2024-03-06Indian WellsR64hardJasmine Paolini6-3 6-3
2024-01-15Australian OpenR64hardJasmine Paolini6-2 6-3
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Maria T.serving67% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Paolini J.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Maria T.

Serve advantage — Paolini J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Maria T.Paolini J.
9
Serve
31
13
Return
55

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Maria T.Paolini J.
1st serve in·Clear edge
56%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
49%
Service points won·Even
56%
57%
Return points won·Even
43%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
50%
55%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.9
1.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.5
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (195 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Maria T.Paolini J.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
13
89
Break points saved·Dominant
31
87
Break points won·Clear edge
78
99
Deciding sets·Dominant
9
97
Tiebreaks·Dominant
58
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Maria T.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Paolini J.
7.6
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.0Hard Elo 1608
Surface ELO
9.0+264 Hard Elo edge
1.0Overall Elo 1703
ELO gap
9.0Overall Elo 1905
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.1
Surface form
4.5
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.9
Minutes 14d
9.4
7.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
9.0
4.4
Country comfort
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Maria T.Paolini J.
Freshness·Clear edge
64
79

Maria T.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 81 games (7d) · Paolini J.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
18°COvercast
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 33%

Draw

Final
Rybakina E.[10]
Sabalenka A.[2]
7-6116-4
Semi-finals
Rybakina E.[10]
Swiatek I.[1]
6-26-2
Sabalenka A.[2]
Sakkari M.[7]
6-26-3
Quarter-finals
Swiatek I.[1]
Cirstea S.
6-26-3
Sakkari M.[7]
Kvitova P.[15]
4-67-56-1
Rybakina E.[10]
Muchova K.
7-642-66-4
Sabalenka A.[2]
Gauff C.[6]
6-46-0
R16
Swiatek I.[1]
Raducanu E.
6-36-1
Rybakina E.[10]
Gracheva V.
6-36-0
Kvitova P.[15]
Pegula J.[3]
6-23-67-611
Sabalenka A.[2]
Krejcikova B.[16]
6-32-66-4
Sakkari M.[7]
Pliskova K.[17]
6-45-76-3
Cirstea S.
Garcia C.[5]
6-44-67-5
Muchova K.
Vondrousova M.
6-46-726-4
Gauff C.[6]
Peterson R.
6-31-66-4
R32
Raducanu E.
Haddad Maia B.[13]
6-12-66-4
Garcia C.[5]
Fernandez L.[30]
6-46-756-1
Rybakina E.[10]
Badosa P.[21]
6-37-5
Sakkari M.[7]
Kalinina A.[27]
3-66-26-4
Kvitova P.[15]
Ostapenko J.[24]
0-66-06-4
Swiatek I.[1]
Andreescu B.[32]
6-37-61
Krejcikova B.[16]
Wang X.
6-26-716-2
Sabalenka A.[2]
Tsurenko L.
W/O
Muchova K.
Trevisan M.[23]
6-43-66-4
Gracheva V.
Kasatkina D.[8]
6-46-4
Cirstea S.
Pera B.
6-36-1
Pegula J.[3]
Potapova A.[26]
3-66-47-5
Gauff C.[6]
Noskova L.
6-46-3
Peterson R.
Teichmann J.
3-66-36-1
Pliskova K.[17]
Kudermetova V.[11]
6-17-5
Vondrousova M.
Jabeur O.[4]
7-656-4
R64
Swiatek I.[1]
Liu C.
6-06-1
Andreescu B.[32]
Stearns P.
4-66-46-3
Cirstea S.
Keys M.[19]
6-1
Haddad Maia B.[13]
Siniakova K.
5-77-646-3
Pera B.
Samsonova L.[12]
2-67-687-66
Rybakina E.[10]
Kenin S.
7-667-65
Fernandez L.[30]
Navarro E.
6-26-4
Trevisan M.[23]
Brengle M.
5-76-16-2
Muchova K.
Azarenka V.[14]
7-616-3
Pliskova K.[17]
Kalinskaya A.
2-66-06-4
Kvitova P.[15]
Mandlik E.
6-17-5
Potapova A.[26]
Wang X.
4-67-646-2
Gauff C.[6]
Bucsa C.
6-26-4
Noskova L.
Anisimova A.[31]
7-666-3
Teichmann J.
Bencic B.[9]
3-66-36-3
Krejcikova B.[16]
Yastremska D.
6-16-2
Sabalenka A.[2]
Rodina E.
6-26-0
Peterson R.
Zhang S.[22]
3-0
Pegula J.[3]
Giorgi C.
3-66-16-2
Ostapenko J.[24]
Sasnovich A.
7-53-66-2
Vondrousova M.
Bouzkova M.[28]
6-16-1
Kudermetova V.[11]
Blinkova A.
6-36-4
Gracheva V.
Martic P.[25]
6-36-2
Wang X.
Alexandrova E.[18]
6-26-3
Badosa P.[21]
Parrizas Diaz N.
6-27-5
Kasatkina D.[8]
Maria T.
6-26-1
Tsurenko L.
Vekic D.[29]
2-66-26-2
Jabeur O.[4]
Frech M.
4-66-46-1
Sakkari M.[7]
Rogers S.
2-66-46-0
Garcia C.[5]
Galfi D.
6-16-746-4
Kalinina A.[27]
Fruhvirtova L.
4-66-47-5
Raducanu E.
Linette M.[20]
7-636-2
R128
Navarro E.
Mcnally C.
1-66-16-1
Vondrousova M.
Marino R.
6-26-2
Brengle M.
Siegemund L.
7-656-4
Rogers S.
Volynets K.
6-44-66-1
Fruhvirtova L.
Sherif M.
0-66-26-3
Kalinskaya A.
Parks A.
6-16-1
Noskova L.
Begu I.
7-676-1
Gracheva V.
Bonaventure Y.
6-26-2
Galfi D.
Collins D.
6-46-4
Bucsa C.
Swan K.
7-667-5
Kenin S.
Stephens S.
6-46-1
Liu C.
Schmiedlova A.
7-656-3
Stearns P.
Masarova R.
4-66-46-4
Raducanu E.
Kovinic D.
6-26-3
Pera B.
Bronzetti L.
7-54-66-3
Muchova K.
Putintseva Y.
6-34-66-4
Parrizas Diaz N.
Cocciaretto E.
6-37-5
Maria T.
Paolini J.
7-56-1
Sasnovich A.
Kanepi K.
6-37-65
Wang X.
Danilovic O.
4-66-26-3
Giorgi C.
Rus A.
6-36-3
Teichmann J.
Krueger A.
6-16-4
Yastremska D.
Bondar A.
6-36-4
Wang X.
Mertens E.
6-36-1
Blinkova A.
Li A.
6-16-2
Cirstea S.
Birrell K.
6-36-2
Peterson R.
Kostyuk M.
7-55-77-5
Tsurenko L.
Zhu L.
6-46-3
Rodina E.
Cornet A.
6-27-5
Siniakova K.
Niemeier J.
7-56-4
Frech M.
Zanevska M.
4-66-46-2
Mandlik E.
Riske Amritraj A.
6-35-77-61