Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria — Eastbourne Round of 32

Eastbourne · WTA · Round of 32
Jasmine Paolini
ITA1
Jasmine Paolini
#15WTA
1905ELO
1748Grass ELO
$2.0MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWLLW
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 23 June 2026 ·
grass
Tatjana Maria
GER
Tatjana Maria
#76WTA
1703ELO
1688Grass ELO
38 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWLWW
Paolini J.
4-6 3-6
Maria T.
Paolini J.
430
Maria T.
662

Tatjana Maria defeated Jasmine Paolini 6-4, 6-3 in the Round of 32 at Eastbourne. Maria served 4 aces to Paolini's 0 and won 80% of her first-serve points. Maria converted 25% of her break points and won 2 service breaks to Paolini's 1.

Around the match

  • “That was an amazing grass court season, but it's nice to be back here. I like this place, especially when the sun is out and the courts are really good.”

    Paolini J.LTA ↗

  • “I was happy that we played on grass. She's such a tough opponent, such a nice girl outside of the court. I see her every day and my kids love her so it was really a tough one playing a first round against each other. I didn't start very well but I found myself back in the match and I'm really happy about this (win).”

    Maria T.LTA ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Tatjana Maria closed it out in two sets, 6–4 6–3.

Head to head

2–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-03-06Indian WellsR64hardJasmine Paolini6-3 6-3
2024-01-15Australian OpenR64hardJasmine Paolini6-2 6-3
2023-03-06Indian WellsR128hardTatjana Maria7-5 6-1
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Paolini J.Maria T.
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
58%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
46%
Service points won·Even
55%
57%
Return points won·Even
43%
40%
Break points saved·Even
56%
55%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.5
4.1
Double faults / match·Even
2.0
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (13 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Paolini J.Maria T.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
68
0
Break points saved·Clear edge
20
0
Break points won·Dominant
95
18
Deciding sets·Dominant
94
1
Tiebreaks·Dominant
84
12

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Paolini J.83%
Maria T.17%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Paolini J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Paolini J.
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Maria T.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.6Grass Elo 1563
Surface ELO
5.4+29 Grass Elo edge
8.0Overall Elo 1801
ELO gap
2.0Overall Elo 1562
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
6.67 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.67 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3.0Clay → Grass
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Paolini J.Maria T.
Freshness·Even
100
99

Paolini J.: 18 days rest · Maria T.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
26°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 58%

Draw