Maria Sakkari vs Jasmine Paolini — Madrid Round of 32

Madrid · WTA · Round of 32
Maria Sakkari
GRE
Maria Sakkari
#37WTA
1812ELO
1754Clay ELO
$901kYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLWWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 22 April 2025
clay
Jasmine Paolini
ITA6
Jasmine Paolini
#15WTA
1905ELO
1856Clay ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
Sakkari M.
6-2 6-1
Paolini J.
Sakkari M.
662
Paolini J.
210

Maria Sakkari defeated Jasmine Paolini 6-2 6-1 in the Madrid round of 32 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Jasmine Paolini came in ranked #15, leading the head-to-head 3–2, defending last year's round of 16, but Maria Sakkari had been the form player, winning 2 of their last 4 on clay. Maria Sakkari narrowed the head-to-head to 3–3.

Key context

Head to head

2–3
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-07-04WimbledonR32grassJasmine Paolini6-1 6-2
2026-02-08DohaR32hardMaria Sakkari6-4 6-2
2025-08-07CincinnatiR64hardJasmine Paolini7-6(2) 7-6(5)
2024-02-19DubaiR16hardJasmine Paolini6-4 6-2
2021-05-31Roland GarrosR64clayMaria Sakkari6-2 6-3
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Sakkari M.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Paolini J.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Sakkari M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Sakkari M.Paolini J.
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
49%
Service points won·Even
57%
57%
Return points won·Even
42%
45%
Break points saved·Even
55%
55%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.8
1.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.2
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (62 vs 73). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Sakkari M.Paolini J.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
81
89
Break points saved·Slight edge
94
87
Break points won·Clear edge
87
99
Deciding sets·Clear edge
77
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
83
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sakkari M.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Paolini J.
7.7
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.6Clay Elo 1754
Surface ELO
6.4+102 Clay Elo edge
3.7Overall Elo 1812
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1905
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.8
Surface form
7.9
0.0
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
9.0
Minutes 14d
6.7
7.0
3-set count
8.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Sakkari M.Paolini J.
Freshness·Clear edge
92
79

Sakkari M.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Paolini J.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
14°CMainly clear
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 74%

Draw

Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Gauff C.[4]
6-37-63
Semi-finals
Gauff C.[4]
Swiatek I.[2]
6-16-1
Sabalenka A.[1]
Svitolina E.[17]
6-37-5
Quarter-finals
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kostyuk M.[24]
7-647-67
Svitolina E.[17]
Uchijima M.
6-26-1
Swiatek I.[2]
Keys M.[5]
0-66-36-2
Gauff C.[4]
Andreeva M.[7]
7-56-1
R16
Uchijima M.
Alexandrova E.[21]
6-47-65
Swiatek I.[2]
Shnaider D.[13]
6-06-736-4
Andreeva M.[7]
Starodubtseva Y.
6-16-4
Svitolina E.[17]
Sakkari M.
6-36-4
Sabalenka A.[1]
Stearns P.
6-26-4
Kostyuk M.[24]
Potapova A.
6-36-2
Gauff C.[4]
Bencic B.
6-46-2
Keys M.[5]
Vekic D.[19]
6-26-3
R32
Shnaider D.[13]
Sevastova A.
6-06-0
Svitolina E.[17]
Rybakina E.[10]
6-36-4
Vekic D.[19]
Navarro E.[11]
4-66-36-2
Starodubtseva Y.
Samsonova L.[18]
2-67-626-0
Andreeva M.[7]
Frech M.[27]
7-56-3
Stearns P.
Masarova R.
6-26-0
Kostyuk M.[24]
Kudermetova V.
6-04-66-4
Gauff C.[4]
Li A.
6-26-3
Alexandrova E.[21]
Kasatkina D.[14]
6-37-63
Swiatek I.[2]
Noskova L.[31]
6-46-2
Sabalenka A.[1]
Mertens E.[28]
3-66-26-1
Keys M.[5]
Kalinskaya A.[30]
7-57-63
Bencic B.
Haddad Maia B.[16]
6-34-67-62
Potapova A.
Kenin S.[32]
3-66-47-66
Uchijima M.
Pegula J.[3]
6-36-2
Sakkari M.
Paolini J.[6]
6-26-1
R64
Gauff C.[4]
Yastremska D.
0-66-27-5
Sabalenka A.[1]
Blinkova A.
6-36-4
Kenin S.[32]
Sun L.
6-36-2
Shnaider D.[13]
Volynets K.
6-16-2
Masarova R.
Putintseva Y.[22]
6-36-3
Swiatek I.[2]
Eala A.
4-66-46-2
Uchijima M.
Jabeur O.[26]
4-66-36-4
Vekic D.[19]
Baptiste H.
6-46-3
Haddad Maia B.[16]
Pera B.
2-66-36-1
Sevastova A.
Ostapenko J.[23]
7-626-2
Samsonova L.[18]
Dolehide C.
6-46-4
Kasatkina D.[14]
Parks A.
6-27-5
Mertens E.[28]
Osorio C.
6-36-3
Sakkari M.
Linette M.[29]
7-656-3
Starodubtseva Y.
Cocciaretto E.
7-656-4
Kudermetova V.
Bucsa C.
4-67-617-5
Rybakina E.[10]
Andreescu B.
6-36-2
Pegula J.[3]
Lys E.
6-26-2
Bencic B.
Tauson C.[20]
7-57-5
Navarro E.[11]
Joint M.
7-57-5
Frech M.[27]
Bouzas Maneiro J.
5-77-626-4
Andreeva M.[7]
Bouzkova M.
6-36-4
Keys M.[5]
Bronzetti L.
6-46-3
Kalinskaya A.[30]
Parry D.
7-646-4
Noskova L.[31]
Carle M.
7-56-1
Stearns P.
Anisimova A.[15]
6-22-67-5
Kostyuk M.[24]
Raducanu E.
6-42-66-2
Potapova A.
Zheng Q.[8]
6-46-4
Alexandrova E.[21]
Danilovic O.
6-36-4
Svitolina E.[17]
Kartal S.
6-36-1
Paolini J.[6]
Boulter K.
6-16-2
Li A.
Fernandez L.[25]
6-43-66-4
R128
Li A.
Sasnovich A.
6-36-2
Sakkari M.
Wang X.
6-47-67
Parks A.
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
6-36-3
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Sherif M.
6-36-1
Carle M.
Sramkova R.
6-36-2
Osorio C.
Arango E.
6-36-3
Pera B.
Fett J.
6-46-3
Bronzetti L.
Osaka N.
6-42-66-4
Potapova A.
Krueger A.
6-776-46-2
Raducanu E.
Lamens S.
7-646-4
Eala A.
Tomova V.
6-36-2
Starodubtseva Y.
Fruhvirtova L.
6-26-2
Baptiste H.
Cirstea S.
6-25-77-64
Kudermetova V.
Kudermetova P.
6-26-2
Yastremska D.
Jones F.
7-654-66-3
Masarova R.
Tomljanovic A.
6-31-67-5
Parry D.
Begu I.
6-36-4
Bencic B.
Sonmez Z.
6-06-2
Bouzkova M.
Zarazua R.
6-24-66-1
Dolehide C.
Avanesyan E.
6-46-4
Lys E.
Kostovic T.
6-26-2
Joint M.
Martinez Cirez C.
6-22-66-4
Boulter K.
Siniakova K.
4-66-26-1
Sun L.
Gracheva V.
3-66-16-4
Kartal S.
Cristian J.
6-27-5
Volynets K.
Kvitova P.
6-46-0
Stearns P.
Birrell K.
5-76-36-4
Blinkova A.
Udvardy P.
6-46-2
Uchijima M.
Montgomery R.
1-66-46-3
Andreescu B.
Kessler M.
6-26-4
Danilovic O.
Azarenka V.
6-46-2
Sevastova A.
Pavlyuchenkova A.
6-47-5