Maria Sakkari vs Jasmine PaoliniDoha Round of 32

Doha · WTA · Round of 32
#43WTA
1812ELO
1796Hard ELO
$901kYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLWWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 8 February 2026
hard
#17WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
Sakkari M.
6-4 6-2
Paolini J.
Sakkari M.
662
Paolini J.
420

Maria Sakkari defeated Jasmine Paolini 6-4 6-2 in the Doha round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Jasmine Paolini came in ranked #17, leading the head-to-head 3–2, defending last year's round of 16. Maria Sakkari narrowed the head-to-head to 3–3.

Key context

Head to head

23
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-07-04WimbledonR32grassJasmine Paolini6-1 6-2
2025-08-07CincinnatiR64hardJasmine Paolini7-6(2) 7-6(5)
2025-04-22MadridR32clayMaria Sakkari6-2 6-1
2024-02-19DubaiR16hardJasmine Paolini6-4 6-2
2021-05-31Roland GarrosR64clayMaria Sakkari6-2 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Sakkari M.serving68% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Paolini J.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Sakkari M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Sakkari M.Paolini J.
24
Serve
31
39
Return
55

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
68%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
61%
58%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
50%
Service points won·Even
56%
55%
Return points won·Even
42%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.8
2.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.7
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (10 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
81
89
Break points saved·Slight edge
94
87
Break points won·Clear edge
87
99
Deciding sets·Clear edge
76
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
83
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.0Hard Elo 1796
Surface ELO
6.0+77 Hard Elo edge
3.7Overall Elo 1812
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1905
0.0
H2H
10.0
5.0
Surface form
5.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
89
72

Sakkari M.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d) · Paolini J.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 61 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 39%

Draw