Jasmine Paolini vs Maria Sakkari — Dubai Round of 16

Dubai · WTA · Round of 16
Jasmine Paolini
ITA
Jasmine Paolini
#17WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 19 February 2024
hard
Maria Sakkari
GRE8
Maria Sakkari
#43WTA
1812ELO
1796Hard ELO
$901kYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLWWLL
Paolini J.
6-4 6-2
Sakkari M.
Paolini J.
662
Sakkari M.
420

Jasmine Paolini defeated Maria Sakkari 6-4 6-2 in the Dubai round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Jasmine Paolini came in ranked #17, defending last year's round of 64. Jasmine Paolini narrowed the head-to-head to 3–3.

Key context

Head to head

2–3
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-07-04WimbledonR32grassJasmine Paolini6-1 6-2
2026-02-08DohaR32hardMaria Sakkari6-4 6-2
2025-08-07CincinnatiR64hardJasmine Paolini7-6(2) 7-6(5)
2025-04-22MadridR32clayMaria Sakkari6-2 6-1
2021-05-31Roland GarrosR64clayMaria Sakkari6-2 6-3
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Paolini J.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Sakkari M.

Sakkari M.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Serve advantage — Paolini J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Paolini J.Sakkari M.
31
Serve
24
55
Return
39

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Paolini J.Sakkari M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
47%
Service points won·Even
58%
58%
Return points won·Even
45%
43%
Break points saved·Even
54%
58%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.5
3.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.7
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (138 vs 101). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Paolini J.Sakkari M.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
89
81
Break points saved·Slight edge
87
94
Break points won·Clear edge
99
87
Deciding sets·Clear edge
97
76
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
93
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Paolini J.
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Sakkari M.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.0+77 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.0Hard Elo 1796
6.3Overall Elo 1905
ELO gap
3.7Overall Elo 1812
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.3
Surface form
3.8
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
9.1
Minutes 14d
7.9
3-set count
7.0
8.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Paolini J.Sakkari M.
Freshness·Clear edge
72
89

Paolini J.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 61 games (7d) · Sakkari M.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
23°CClear
Wind 29 km/hHumidity 60%

Draw

Final
Paolini J.
Kalinskaya A.
4-67-57-5
Semi-finals
Paolini J.
Cirstea S.
6-27-66
Kalinskaya A.
Swiatek I.[1]
6-46-4
Quarter-finals
Kalinskaya A.
Gauff C.[3]
2-66-46-2
Paolini J.
Rybakina E.[4]
W/O
Swiatek I.[1]
Zheng Q.[6]
6-36-2
Cirstea S.
Vondrousova M.[7]
2-67-616-2
R16
Zheng Q.[6]
Potapova A.
6-36-2
Gauff C.[3]
Pliskova K.
2-66-46-3
Paolini J.
Sakkari M.[8]
6-46-2
Swiatek I.[1]
Svitolina E.[15]
6-16-4
Rybakina E.[4]
Frech M.
7-653-66-4
Vondrousova M.[7]
Samsonova L.[12]
6-26-2
Kalinskaya A.
Ostapenko J.[9]
6-47-5
Cirstea S.
Vekic D.
3-66-37-5
R32
Gauff C.[3]
Cocciaretto E.
6-17-5
Rybakina E.[4]
Azarenka V.
4-66-2
Samsonova L.[12]
Pavlyuchenkova A.
W/O
Vekic D.
Sabalenka A.[2]
6-756-36-0
Potapova A.
Bronzetti L.
6-06-3
Ostapenko J.[9]
Sun L.
6-46-3
Frech M.
Martic P.
6-41-66-2
Pliskova K.
Krueger A.
6-726-36-4
Swiatek I.[1]
Stephens S.
6-46-4
Zheng Q.[6]
Hibino N.
5-76-26-2
Kalinskaya A.
Bucsa C.
6-36-4
Vondrousova M.[7]
Stearns P.
6-15-76-2
Cirstea S.
Kudermetova V.[13]
6-16-4
Svitolina E.[15]
Maria T.
6-36-3
Sakkari M.[8]
Navarro E.
6-26-4
Paolini J.
Fernandez L.
6-36-4
R64
Navarro E.
Siniakova K.
4-67-56-4
Stephens S.
Burel C.
6-41-66-2
Ostapenko J.[9]
Wang X.
5-76-26-3
Azarenka V.
Rus A.
6-26-4
Sun L.
Badosa P.
6-4
Potapova A.
Zhu L.
4-66-26-4
Kalinskaya A.
Hunter S.
6-16-2
Fernandez L.
Pera B.
6-36-2
Paolini J.
Haddad Maia B.[11]
4-66-46-0
Frech M.
Alexandrova E.[14]
7-626-3
Martic P.
Dolehide C.
6-47-64
Stearns P.
Andreeva M.
6-22-66-1
Pavlyuchenkova A.
Bouzkova M.
6-46-3
Cirstea S.
Kenin S.
6-37-62
Kudermetova V.[13]
Yastremska D.
6-01-66-0
Vekic D.
Wang X.
6-26-4
Pliskova K.
Zhang S.
6-37-5
Maria T.
Gracheva V.
6-26-1
Samsonova L.[12]
Tomova V.
7-626-3
Cocciaretto E.
Mertens E.
1-66-37-63
Svitolina E.[15]
Kalinina A.
6-37-67
Bronzetti L.
Kasatkina D.[10]
7-654-67-5
Hibino N.
Linette M.
6-23-66-4
Krueger A.
Garcia C.[16]
3-66-36-3