Elena Rybakina vs Jasmine PaoliniNingbo Semi-final

Ningbo · WTA · Semi-final
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 13 October 2025
hard
#15WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
Rybakina E.
6-3 6-2
Paolini J.
Rybakina E.
662
Paolini J.
320

Elena Rybakina defeated Jasmine Paolini 6-3 6-2 in the Ningbo semi-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Elena Rybakina came in ranked #2. Elena Rybakina narrowed the head-to-head to 3–3.

Key context

Head to head

23
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-11-04Riyadh FinalsRRhardJasmine Paolini7-6(5) 6-4
2024-05-27Roland GarrosQFclayJasmine Paolini6-2 4-6 6-4
2024-04-15StuttgartQFclayElena Rybakina6-3 5-7 6-3
2023-08-14CincinnatiR16hardJasmine Paolini4-6 5-2 RET
2023-05-08RomeR64clayElena Rybakina7-6(4) 6-1

Serve vs return

This season
Rybakina E.serving82% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Paolini J.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Rybakina E.

Serve advantage — Rybakina E.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Rybakina E.Paolini J.
100
Serve
31
34
Return
55

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
67%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
74%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
64%
57%
Return points won·Even
43%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
55%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.0
1.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.9
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (96 vs 73). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
92
89
Break points saved·Slight edge
98
87
Break points won·Even
96
99
Deciding sets·Even
97
97
Tiebreaks·Even
93
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.6
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
8.1+238 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.9Hard Elo 1873
8.1Overall Elo 2122
ELO gap
1.9Overall Elo 1905
0.0
H2H
10.0
6.9
Surface form
7.6
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.5
Minutes 14d
6.3
3-set count
7.0
9.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0
5.0
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
92
79

Rybakina E.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Paolini J.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
34°CDrizzle
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 47%