Jasmine Paolini vs Elena Rybakina — Riyadh Finals Round Robin

Riyadh Finals · WTA · Round Robin
ITA
Jasmine Paolini
[4]
#13WTA
1930ELO
1885Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 4 November 2024
hard
KAZ
Elena Rybakina
[5]
#2WTA
2175ELO
2136Hard ELO
$4.2MYTD
$29MCAREER
26 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWW

Jasmine Paolini defeated Elena Rybakina 7-6 6-4 in the Riyadh Finals round robin on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Elena Rybakina came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 3–2. Jasmine Paolini narrowed the head-to-head to 3–3.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Paolini J.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
Rybakina E.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 84 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
1.9Hard Elo 1885
Surface ELO
8.1+251 Hard Elo edge
1.9Overall Elo 1930
ELO gap
8.1Overall Elo 2175
10.0
H2H
0.0
5.7
Surface form
6.6
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
8.0
Prev. match
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Paolini J.
7762
Rybakina E.
6540

Head to head

2–3
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-13NingboSFhardElena Rybakina6-3 6-2
2024-05-27Roland GarrosQFclayJasmine Paolini6-2 4-6 6-4
2024-04-15StuttgartQFclayElena Rybakina6-3 5-7 6-3
2023-08-14CincinnatiR16hardJasmine Paolini4-6 5-2 RET
2023-05-08RomeR64clayElena Rybakina7-6(4) 6-1
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

Recent form
Paolini J.Rybakina E.
67%1st serve in+7%60%
59%1st serve points won+13%72%
49%2nd serve points won+4%53%
56%Service points won+9%65%
42%Return points won+1%41%
58%Break points saved+8%66%
2.1Aces / match+4.56.6
1.7Double faults / match+0.72.4

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw

Final
Gauff C.[3]
Zheng Q.[7]
3-66-47-62
Semi-finals
Zheng Q.[7]
Krejcikova B.[8]
6-37-5
Gauff C.[3]
Sabalenka A.[1]
7-646-3
Round Robin
Swiatek I.[2]
Krejcikova B.[8]
4-67-56-2
Sabalenka A.[1]
Paolini J.[4]
6-37-5
Zheng Q.[7]
Paolini J.[4]
6-16-1
Swiatek I.[2]
Kasatkina D.
6-16-0
Zheng Q.[7]
Rybakina E.[5]
7-643-66-1
Gauff C.[3]
Swiatek I.[2]
6-36-4
Gauff C.[3]
Pegula J.[6]
6-36-2
Krejcikova B.[8]
Gauff C.[3]
7-56-4
Krejcikova B.[8]
Pegula J.[6]
6-36-3
Sabalenka A.[1]
Zheng Q.[7]
6-36-4
Paolini J.[4]
Rybakina E.[5]
7-656-4
Rybakina E.[5]
Sabalenka A.[1]
6-43-66-1