Jasmine Paolini vs Elena Rybakina — Roland Garros Quarter-final

Roland Garros · WTA · Quarter-final
Jasmine Paolini
ITA13
Jasmine Paolini
#17WTA
1905ELO
1856Clay ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 27 May 2024
clay
Elena Rybakina
KAZ2
Elena Rybakina
#2WTA
2122ELO
2002Clay ELO
$4.4MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWLW
Paolini J.
6-2 4-6 6-4
Rybakina E.
Paolini J.
6462
Rybakina E.
2641

Jasmine Paolini defeated Elena Rybakina 6-2 4-6 6-4 in the Roland Garros quarter-final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Elena Rybakina came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 3–2, defending last year's round of 32. Jasmine Paolini narrowed the head-to-head to 3–3.

Key context

  • Match story: Jasmine Paolini closed it out in three sets, 6–2 4–6 6–4.

Head to head

2–3
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-13NingboSFhardElena Rybakina6-3 6-2
2024-11-04Riyadh FinalsRRhardJasmine Paolini7-6(5) 6-4
2024-04-15StuttgartQFclayElena Rybakina6-3 5-7 6-3
2023-08-14CincinnatiR16hardJasmine Paolini4-6 5-2 RET
2023-05-08RomeR64clayElena Rybakina7-6(4) 6-1
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Paolini J.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Rybakina E.

Rybakina E.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Serve advantage — Rybakina E.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Paolini J.Rybakina E.
—
Serve
100
—
Return
9

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Paolini J.Rybakina E.
1st serve in·Slight edge
68%
59%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
62%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
64%
Return points won·Even
45%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.5
6.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.7
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (138 vs 154). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Paolini J.Rybakina E.
Clutch Rating·Even
89
92
Break points saved·Slight edge
87
98
Break points won·Even
99
96
Deciding sets·Even
97
97
Tiebreaks·Even
93
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Paolini J.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Rybakina E.
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 35 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
3.0Clay Elo 1856
Surface ELO
7.0+145 Clay Elo edge
1.9Overall Elo 1905
ELO gap
8.1Overall Elo 2122
0.0
H2H
10.0
5.2
Surface form
8.2
0.0
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
6.0
Prev. match
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Paolini J.Rybakina E.
Freshness·Clear edge
76
91

Paolini J.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d) · Rybakina E.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
16°CDrizzle
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 63%

Draw

Final
Swiatek I.[3]
Paolini J.[13]
6-26-1
Semi-finals
Swiatek I.[3]
Gauff C.[4]
6-26-4
Paolini J.[13]
Andreeva M.[8]
6-36-1
Quarter-finals
Gauff C.[4]
Jabeur O.[8]
4-66-26-3
Swiatek I.[3]
Vondrousova M.[5]
6-06-2
Andreeva M.[8]
Sabalenka A.[1]
6-756-46-4
Paolini J.[13]
Rybakina E.[2]
6-24-66-4
R16
Gauff C.[4]
Cocciaretto E.
6-16-2
Swiatek I.[3]
Potapova A.[28]
6-06-0
Sabalenka A.[1]
Navarro E.[22]
6-26-3
Rybakina E.[2]
Svitolina E.[7]
6-46-3
Vondrousova M.[5]
Danilovic O.
6-46-2
Andreeva M.[8]
Gracheva V.
7-56-2
Jabeur O.[8]
Tauson C.[21]
6-46-4
Paolini J.[13]
Avanesyan E.
4-66-06-1
R32
Gauff C.[4]
Yastremska D.[30]
6-26-4
Paolini J.[13]
Andreescu B.[25]
6-13-66-0
Vondrousova M.[5]
Paquet C.
6-16-3
Avanesyan E.
Zheng Q.[7]
3-66-37-66
Jabeur O.[8]
Fernandez L.[24]
6-47-65
Rybakina E.[2]
Mertens E.[23]
6-46-2
Navarro E.[22]
Keys M.[19]
7-657-63
Swiatek I.[3]
Bouzkova M.[27]
6-46-2
Potapova A.[28]
Wang X.
7-56-766-4
Danilovic O.
Vekic D.
0-67-57-68
Tauson C.[21]
Kenin S.
6-27-5
Gracheva V.
Begu I.
7-56-3
Svitolina E.[7]
Bogdan A.
7-56-2
Andreeva M.[8]
Stearns P.
6-26-1
Cocciaretto E.
Samsonova L.[20]
7-646-2
Sabalenka A.[1]
Badosa P.
7-56-1
R64
Jabeur O.[8]
Osorio C.
6-31-66-3
Swiatek I.[3]
Osaka N.[16]
7-611-67-5
Bouzkova M.[27]
Fett J.
6-26-2
Danilovic O.
Collins D.[11]
6-737-56-4
Paquet C.
Siniakova K.[32]
3-67-627-66
Vekic D.
Kostyuk M.[15]
7-56-4
Vondrousova M.[5]
Volynets K.
0-66-16-4
Gauff C.[4]
Zidansek T.[22]
6-36-4
Yastremska D.[30]
Wang Y.
6-26-0
Samsonova L.[20]
Anisimova A.[6]
6-26-1
Tauson C.[21]
Ostapenko J.[29]
7-644-66-3
Kenin S.
Garcia C.[21]
6-36-3
Zheng Q.[7]
Korpatsch T.
6-26-2
Andreescu B.[25]
Kalinskaya A.[22]
1-67-56-3
Avanesyan E.
Blinkova A.
6-36-0
Bogdan A.
Pavlyuchenkova A.[20]
6-46-4
Paolini J.[13]
Baptiste H.[26]
6-47-66
Gracheva V.
Pera B.
6-16-3
Stearns P.
Kasatkina D.[10]
7-56-2
Begu I.
Noskova L.[12]
6-46-2
Andreeva M.[8]
Azarenka V.[19]
6-33-67-5
Badosa P.
Putintseva Y.
4-66-17-5
Sabalenka A.[1]
Uchijima M.
6-26-2
Keys M.[19]
Sherif M.
6-07-67
Navarro E.[22]
Errani S.
6-27-5
Cocciaretto E.
Bucsa C.[31]
6-16-4
Wang X.
Tomova V.
7-55-76-1
Mertens E.[23]
Martic P.
6-46-3
Rybakina E.[2]
Rus A.
6-36-4
Fernandez L.[24]
Wang X.[32]
6-36-4
Svitolina E.[7]
Parry D.
6-47-63
Potapova A.[28]
Golubic V.
6-26-2
R128
Vekic D.
Tsurenko L.
6-5
Zheng Q.[7]
Cornet A.
6-26-1
Svitolina E.[7]
Pliskova K.[20]
3-66-46-2
Rus A.
Kerber A.
6-46-3
Uchijima M.
Burillo Escorihuela I.
6-16-1
Sherif M.
Yuan Y.[10]
6-16-3
Osaka N.[16]
Bronzetti L.
6-14-67-5
Martic P.
Mladenovic K.
6-46-4
Avanesyan E.
Zhu L.
6-26-4
Navarro E.[22]
Sonmez Z.
6-26-0
Paquet C.
Shnaider D.[25]
6-36-1
Golubic V.
Krejcikova B.[24]
7-636-4
Stearns P.
Ciric Bagaric L.
6-36-787-66
Yastremska D.[30]
Tomljanovic A.
3-66-36-3
Garcia C.[21]
Lys E.
4-67-56-2
Blinkova A.
Cirstea S.[18]
6-33-67-65
Mertens E.[23]
Carle M.
6-37-68
Gracheva V.
Sakkari M.[6]
3-66-46-3
Danilovic O.
Trevisan M.
6-16-2
Siniakova K.[32]
Galfi D.
7-57-63
Kostyuk M.[15]
Pigossi L.
7-56-746-4
Volynets K.
Krunic A.
7-646-2
Vondrousova M.[5]
Masarova R.
6-16-3
Zidansek T.[22]
Van Uytvanck A.
6-22-66-1
Cocciaretto E.
Haddad Maia B.[13]
3-66-46-1
Kenin S.
Siegemund L.
4-66-26-2
Wang X.[32]
Bai Z.
7-56-746-3
Osorio C.
Kalinina A.
3-67-624-1
Jabeur O.[8]
Vickery S.
6-36-2
Korpatsch T.
Krueger A.
4-66-47-69
Parry D.
Ferro F.
3-66-36-3
Bogdan A.
Jacquemot E.
6-16-3
Pera B.
Hibino N.
6-26-0
Rybakina E.[2]
Minnen G.
6-26-3
Azarenka V.[19]
Podoroska N.
6-16-0
Keys M.[19]
Zarazua R.
6-36-2
Errani S.
Schmiedlova A.
6-36-2
Badosa P.
Boulter K.[26]
4-67-56-4
Putintseva Y.
Stephens S.
6-16-2
Begu I.
Riera J.
6-26-2
Pavlyuchenkova A.[20]
Udvardy P.
6-36-4
Kasatkina D.[10]
Frech M.
7-56-1
Anisimova A.[6]
Sramkova R.
7-666-4
Paolini J.[13]
Saville D.
6-36-4
Fett J.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-23-67-5
Wang X.
Niemeier J.
0-66-26-4
Collins D.[11]
Dolehide C.
6-36-4
Tomova V.
Alexandrova E.[14]
6-37-65
Wang Y.
Timofeeva M.[24]
6-36-3
Bucsa C.[31]
Starodubtseva Y.
6-46-1
Ostapenko J.[29]
Cristian J.
6-47-5
Tauson C.[21]
Maria T.
6-26-3
Fernandez L.[24]
Ponchet J.
6-26-0
Kalinskaya A.[22]
Burel C.
7-637-5
Andreescu B.[25]
Sorribes Tormo S.
7-56-1
Andreeva M.[8]
Bektas E.
6-26-3
Swiatek I.[3]
Jeanjean L.
6-16-2
Sabalenka A.[1]
Andreeva E.
6-16-2
Gauff C.[4]
Avdeeva J.
6-16-1
Baptiste H.[26]
Day K.
4-66-26-2
Noskova L.[12]
Dart H.
7-636-4
Bouzkova M.[27]
Kudermetova V.[29]
6-26-4
Samsonova L.[20]
Linette M.
6-16-1
Potapova A.[28]
Rakhimova K.
6-26-3