Jasmine Paolini vs Elena RybakinaCincinnati Round of 16

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 16
#17WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
0 — 0
Sets
Retired
Monday, 14 August 2023
hard
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWLW
Paolini J.
4-6 5-2
Rybakina E.
Paolini J.
45
Rybakina E.
62

Jasmine Paolini advanced when Elena Rybakina retired 4-6 5-2 in the Cincinnati round of 16. Jasmine Paolini narrowed the head-to-head to 3–3.

Head to head

23
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-13NingboSFhardElena Rybakina6-3 6-2
2024-11-04Riyadh FinalsRRhardJasmine Paolini7-6(5) 6-4
2024-05-27Roland GarrosQFclayJasmine Paolini6-2 4-6 6-4
2024-04-15StuttgartQFclayElena Rybakina6-3 5-7 6-3
2023-05-08RomeR64clayElena Rybakina7-6(4) 6-1

Serve vs return

This season
Paolini J.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Rybakina E.

Rybakina E.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Serve advantage — Rybakina E.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Paolini J.Rybakina E.
31
Serve
100
55
Return
34

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
68%
59%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
61%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
57%
64%
Return points won·Even
45%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.4
7.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.8
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
89
92
Break points saved·Slight edge
87
98
Break points won·Even
99
96
Deciding sets·Even
97
98
Tiebreaks·Even
93
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.2
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
7.8
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.9Hard Elo 1873
Surface ELO
8.1+238 Hard Elo edge
1.9Overall Elo 1905
ELO gap
8.1Overall Elo 2122
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.2
Surface form
7.8
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
8.3
Minutes 14d
4.5
3-set count
0.0
9.0
Prev. match
4.0
Country comfort
6.2
Context
5.0
Defending pts
7.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
72
89

Paolini J.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 61 games (7d) · Rybakina E.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
23°CRain
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 92%

Draw