Elena Rybakina vs Jasmine PaoliniStuttgart Quarter-final

Stuttgart · WTA · Quarter-final
#2WTA
2122ELO
2002Clay ELO
$4.4MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 15 April 2024
clay
#17WTA
1905ELO
1856Clay ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
Rybakina E.
6-3 5-7 6-3
Paolini J.
Rybakina E.
6562
Paolini J.
3731

Elena Rybakina defeated Jasmine Paolini 6-3 5-7 6-3 in the Stuttgart quarter-final on clay. The result followed the form book — Elena Rybakina came in ranked #2, defending last year's round of 16. Elena Rybakina narrowed the head-to-head to 3–3.

Key context

  • Match story: Elena Rybakina closed it out in three sets, 6–3 5–7 6–3.

Head to head

23
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-13NingboSFhardElena Rybakina6-3 6-2
2024-11-04Riyadh FinalsRRhardJasmine Paolini7-6(5) 6-4
2024-05-27Roland GarrosQFclayJasmine Paolini6-2 4-6 6-4
2023-08-14CincinnatiR16hardJasmine Paolini4-6 5-2 RET
2023-05-08RomeR64clayElena Rybakina7-6(4) 6-1

Serve vs return

This season
Rybakina E.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Paolini J.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Rybakina E.

Serve advantage — Rybakina E.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Rybakina E.Paolini J.
100
Serve
9
Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
68%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
74%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
64%
58%
Return points won·Even
43%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
54%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.8
1.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.7
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (154 vs 138). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
92
89
Break points saved·Slight edge
98
87
Break points won·Even
96
99
Deciding sets·Even
97
97
Tiebreaks·Even
93
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
7.0+145 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Clay Elo 1856
8.1Overall Elo 2122
ELO gap
1.9Overall Elo 1905
10.0
H2H
0.0
8.2
Surface form
6.0
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.0
Prev. match
7.0
6.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
91
76

Rybakina E.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Paolini J.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
13°CDrizzle
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 87%