Jessica Pegula vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro — Wimbledon Round of 32

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 32
Jessica Pegula
USA
Jessica Pegula
#4WTA
2097ELO
1903Grass ELO
$2.8MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWLLWW
—
Sets
Friday, 3 July 2026 ·
grass
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
ESP
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
#52WTA
1721ELO
1632Grass ELO
$391kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
23 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLWWLLL
Pegula J.
vs
Bouzas Maneiro J.

Jessica Pegula faces Jessica Bouzas Maneiro in the Wimbledon round of 32 on grass. Jessica Pegula holds the paper edge — ranked #4, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 128.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC
Pegula J.92%
Bouzas Maneiro J.8%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Pegula J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Pegula J.
7.9
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Bouzas Maneiro J.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.4+271 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.6Grass Elo 1632
8.7Overall Elo 2097
ELO gap
1.3Overall Elo 1721
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
7.98 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.07 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
5.4Won 57% in GBR (21)
Country comfort
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Pegula J.Cooling
Bouzas Maneiro J.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

24 vs 17 matches

Statistics

This season
Pegula J.Bouzas Maneiro J.
1st serve in·Even
63%
63%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
71%
59%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
51%
45%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
54%
Return points won·Even
44%
46%
Break points saved·Slight edge
62%
52%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.8
1.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.8
3.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Pegula J.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Bouzas Maneiro J.

Bouzas Maneiro J.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Serve advantage — Pegula J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Pegula J.Bouzas Maneiro J.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
96
52
Break points saved·Dominant
96
53
Break points won·Even
99
95
Deciding sets·Clear edge
100
83
Tiebreaks·Dominant
95
13

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Pegula J.Bouzas Maneiro J.
Freshness·Slight edge
77
82

Pegula J.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Bouzas Maneiro J.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
20°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 43%

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-08-26US OpenR32hardJessica Pegula6-3 6-3
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kostovic T.
6-26-3
Oliynykova O.
Kessler M.
0-60-6
Ostapenko J.
Dart H.
6-33-66-4
Ruzic A.
Semenistaja D.
6-33-66-3
Fernandez L.[22]
Tjen J.
1-66-73
Xu M.
Kasatkina D.
2-66-32-6
Gasanova A.
Arango E.
6-36-1
Jacquemot E.
Osaka N.[14]
1-65-7
Muchova K.[10]
Zakharova A.
6-36-2
Andreescu B.
Zhang S.
6-736-76
Parks A.
Dudeney A.
6-36-3
Sawangkaew M.
Chwalinska M.[20]
2-67-56-2
Siniakova K.[32]
Zheng Q.
6-46-4
Stearns P.
Bartunkova N.
4-66-35-7
Krejcikova B.
Klugman H.
6-16-4
Linette M.
Andreeva M.[5]
5-74-6
Pegula J.[4]
Vidmanova D.
7-56-3
Sorribes Tormo S.
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
6-26-3
Yastremska D.
Ito A.
7-614-67-5
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Potapova A.[27]
6-26-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Udvardy P.
6-46-2
Tararudee L.
Tagger L.
7-635-76-4
Putintseva Y.
Maria T.
4-64-6
J. Cristian
Jovic I.[16]
6-710-6
Bencic B.[11]
Stojsavljevic M.
6-26-1
Wang X.
Cocciaretto E.
6-32-66-2
Jones F.
Parry D.
4-64-6
Frech M.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-754-6
Li A.[28]
Sonmez Z.
5-76-14-6
Liu C.
Vandewinkel H.
4-66-36-4
Sierra S.
Bondar A.
6-35-77-5
Korpatsch T.
Gauff C.[7]
2-61-6
Svitolina E.[8]
Snigur D.
5-72-6
Erjavec V.
Jeanjean L.
4-66-46-76
Tomljanovic A.
Bolkvadze M.
2-66-24-6
Krueger A.
Vekic D.[31]
3-67-636-4
Navarro E.[23]
Badosa P.
4-66-37-5
Selekhmeteva O.
Kraus S.
6-17-5
Starodubtseva Y.
Blinkova A.
7-634-61-6
N. Podoroska
Kostyuk M.[12]
1-62-6
Paolini J.[13]
Montgomery R.
0-66-47-5
Shymanovich I.
Golubic V.
2-66-21-6
Kalinina A.
Rakhimova K.
6-44-65-7
Sakkari M.
Tauson C.[24]
6-36-3
Eala A.[29]
Zarazua R.
6-16-2
S. Williams
Joint M.
3-67-663-6
Valentova T.
Pliskova K.
3-64-6
Townsend T.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-66-23-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Gjorcheska L.
6-36-2
Marcinko P.
Kenin S.
6-744-6
Begu I.
Swan K.
4-64-6
Day K.
Keys M.[26]
7-654-63-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Bejlek S.
6-17-66
Birrell K.
Korneeva A.
6-30-66-2
Osorio C.
Waltert S.
6-26-1
Seidel E.
Noskova L.[9]
4-63-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Lys E.
7-56-1
Kudermetova P.
Samsonova L.
3-63-6
Boulter K.
Grant T.
4-62-6
Gibson T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
1-66-32-6
Mertens E.[25]
Siegemund L.
6-26-4
Haddad Maia B.
Timofeeva M.
3-62-6
Ruse E.
Mcnally C.
5-73-6
Boisson L.
Rybakina E.[2]
4-66-13-6
Sabalenka A.
Kessler M.
6-17-69
Ostapenko J.
Ruzic A.
6-26-0
Tjen J.
Kasatkina D.
7-651-64-6
Gasanova A.
Osaka N.
3-62-6
Muchova K.
Zhang S.
6-36-2
Parks A.
Sawangkaew M.
5-70-6
Siniakova K.
Bartunkova N.
2-64-6
Krejcikova B.
Andreeva M.
4-67-56-4
Pegula J.
Sorribes Tormo S.
7-666-1
Yastremska D.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
3-67-612-6
Alexandrova E.
Tararudee L.
7-57-5
Maria T.
Jovic I.
1-62-6
Bencic B.
Wang X.
7-56-0
Parry D.
Kalinskaya A.
4-66-36-78
Sonmez Z.
Liu C.
5-73-6
Sierra S.
Gauff C.
3-66-36-77
Snigur D.
Jeanjean L.
Bolkvadze M.
Krueger A.
Navarro E.[23]
Selekhmeteva O.
Blinkova A.
Kostyuk M.
Paolini J.
Golubic V.
Rakhimova K.
Sakkari M.
Eala A.
Joint M.
Pliskova K.
Swiatek I.
Anisimova A.
Kenin S.
Swan K.
Keys M.
Cirstea S.
Birrell K.
Osorio C.
Noskova L.
Shnaider D.[15]
Samsonova L.
Grant T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
Mertens E.
Timofeeva M.
Mcnally C.
Rybakina E.
Sabalenka A.
Ostapenko J.
Kasatkina D.
Osaka N.
Muchova K.
Sawangkaew M.
Bartunkova N.
Krejcikova B.
Pegula J.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Alexandrova E.
Jovic I.
Bencic B.
Kalinskaya A.
Liu C.
Gauff C.
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