Jessica Pegula vs Anna KalinskayaBrisbane Round of 32

Brisbane · WTA · Round of 32
#4WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$2.8MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 4 January 2026
hard
#20WTA
1907ELO
1863Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$7.0MCAREER
27 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLLWWW
Pegula J.
6-2 2-6 6-4
Kalinskaya A.
Pegula J.
6262
Kalinskaya A.
2641

Jessica Pegula defeated Anna Kalinskaya 6-2 2-6 6-4 in the Brisbane round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Jessica Pegula came in ranked #4, leading the head-to-head 3–1. Jessica Pegula extended the head-to-head to 4–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Jessica Pegula closed it out in three sets, 6–2 2–6 6–4.

Head to head

31
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-18StrasbourgR16clayAnna Kalinskaya4-6 6-4 6-2
2025-03-18MiamiR32hardJessica Pegula6-7(3) 6-2 7-6(2)
2024-06-17BerlinFgrassJessica Pegula6-7(0) 6-4 7-6(3)
2019-07-29WashingtonSFhardJessica Pegula6-3 3-6 6-1

Serve vs return

This season
Pegula J.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Kalinskaya A.

Kalinskaya A.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Serve advantage — Pegula J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Pegula J.Kalinskaya A.
68
Serve
36
73
Return
39

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
64%
57%
Return points won·Even
44%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
62%
54%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.7
1.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.8
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
96
88
Break points saved·Slight edge
96
88
Break points won·Even
99
97
Deciding sets·Slight edge
100
89
Tiebreaks·Even
96
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 64 days (−1.2)
3.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Injury return: 69 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
7.6+195 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.4Hard Elo 1863
7.6Overall Elo 2097
ELO gap
2.4Overall Elo 1907
10.0
H2H
0.0
6.6
Surface form
5.4
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
6.3
Country comfort
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
76
87

Pegula J.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d) · Kalinskaya A.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw