Jessica Pegula vs Anna Kalinskaya — Washington Quarter-final

Washington · WTA · Quarter-final
Jessica Pegula
USA1
Jessica Pegula
#3WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$3.5MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWWLWWW
—
Sets
Friday, 31 July 2026 ·
hard
Anna Kalinskaya
RUS5
Anna Kalinskaya
#20WTA
1907ELO
1863Hard ELO
$1.5MYTD
$7.3MCAREER
27 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWLLWLL
Pegula J.
vs
Kalinskaya A.

Jessica Pegula faces Anna Kalinskaya in the Washington quarter-final on hard. Jessica Pegula holds the paper edge — ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 4–1, a roughly 200-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 01:50 UTC
Pegula J.77%
Kalinskaya A.23%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Pegula J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
19 common opponents · Pegula J. 21–5 · Kalinskaya A. 14–10
Pegula J. better · same surface▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Pegula J.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Kalinskaya A.
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.4+195 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.6Hard Elo 1863
7.4Overall Elo 2096
ELO gap
2.6Overall Elo 1907
7.8Leads 2–0 on hard
H2H
2.2Trails 0–2 on hard
7.98 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.97 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

36 vs 28 matches

Statistics

This season
Pegula J.Kalinskaya A.
1st serve in·Even
63%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
48%
Service points won·Even
62%
58%
Return points won·Even
46%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
52%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.3
2.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.5
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Pegula J.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Kalinskaya A.

Kalinskaya A.serving68% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Serve advantage — Pegula J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Pegula J.Kalinskaya A.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
92
72
Break points saved·Dominant
79
32
Break points won·Even
98
95
Deciding sets·Slight edge
99
89
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
90
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Pegula J.Kalinskaya A.
Freshness·
—
90

Kalinskaya A.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
29°CMainly clear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 54%

Head to head

4–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-04BrisbaneR32hardJessica Pegula6-2 2-6 6-4
2025-05-18StrasbourgR16clayAnna Kalinskaya4-6 6-4 6-2
2025-03-18MiamiR32hardJessica Pegula6-7 6-2 7-6
2024-06-17BerlinFgrassJessica Pegula6-7 6-4 7-6
2019-07-29WashingtonSFhardJessica Pegula6-3 3-6 6-1
View full head-to-head →

Draw