Jessica Pegula vs Elina SvitolinaDubai Final

Dubai · WTA · Final
#3WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$2.8MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 15 February 2026
hard
#10WTA
2070ELO
1997Hard ELO
$3.4MYTD
$30MCAREER
31 yrs · 174 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWWW
Pegula J.
6-2 6-4
Svitolina E.
Pegula J.
662
Svitolina E.
240

Jessica Pegula defeated Elina Svitolina 6-2 6-4 in the Dubai final on hard. The result followed the form book — Jessica Pegula came in ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 5–3, defending last year's round of 16. Jessica Pegula extended the head-to-head to 6–3.

Key context

Head to head

53
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-03-05Indian WellsR16hardElina Svitolina5-7 6-1 6-2
2025-02-09DohaR32hardJessica Pegula6-3 7-6(3)
2024-07-29Paris OlympicsR32clayElina Svitolina4-6 6-1 6-3
2023-08-28US OpenR32hardJessica Pegula6-4 4-6 6-2
2023-07-31WashingtonQFhardJessica Pegula4-6 6-3 6-4
2021-10-06Indian WellsR16hardJessica Pegula6-1 6-1
2021-02-08Australian OpenR16hardJessica Pegula6-4 3-6 6-3
2021-01-06Abu DhabiR64hardElina Svitolina6-4 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Pegula J.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Svitolina E.

Svitolina E.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Pegula J.Svitolina E.
68
Serve
48
73
Return
57

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
49%
Service points won·Even
63%
61%
Return points won·Even
43%
43%
Break points saved·Even
62%
58%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.9
4.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.8
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
96
89
Break points saved·Even
96
93
Break points won·Even
99
99
Deciding sets·Even
100
99
Tiebreaks·Even
96
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 27 days (−0.3)
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.1+61 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Hard Elo 1997
5.9Overall Elo 2097
ELO gap
4.1Overall Elo 2070
6.1
H2H
3.9
8.2
Surface form
7.5
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
8.5
8.0
Prev. match
9.0
Country comfort
6.3
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
79
98

Pegula J.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d) · Svitolina E.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
29°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 24%

Draw

Final
Pegula J.[4]
Svitolina E.[7]
6-26-4