Jessica Pegula vs Magdalena Frech — Washington Round of 16

Washington · WTA · Round of 16
Jessica Pegula
USA1
Jessica Pegula
#3WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$3.5MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWLWWWL
—
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
hard
Magdalena Frech
POL
Magdalena Frech
#48WTA
1725ELO
1700Hard ELO
$778kYTD
$4.9MCAREER
28 yrs · 171 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLLLWLWWL
Pegula J.
vs
Frech M.

Jessica Pegula faces Magdalena Frech in the Washington round of 16 on hard. Jessica Pegula holds the paper edge — ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 3–0, a roughly 360-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 04:50 UTC
Pegula J.86%
Frech M.14%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Pegula J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
9 common opponents · Pegula J. 9–5 · Frech M. 3–7
Pegula J. better · same surface, 42 days apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Pegula J.
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Frech M.
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
9.5+358 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.5Hard Elo 1700
9.6Overall Elo 2096
ELO gap
0.4Overall Elo 1725
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
7.78 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.06 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Country comfort
6.1Won 68% in Usa (31)
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

23 vs 19 matches

Statistics

This season
Pegula J.Frech M.
1st serve in·Even
63%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
51%
44%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
58%
Return points won·Even
44%
43%
Break points saved·Even
61%
58%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.7
3.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.8
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Pegula J.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Frech M.

Frech M.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Serve advantage — Pegula J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Pegula J.Frech M.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
92
14
Break points saved·Dominant
81
5
Break points won·Dominant
98
29
Deciding sets·Dominant
99
41
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
90
70

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Pegula J.Frech M.
Freshness·
—
88

Frech M.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°CClear
Wind 20 km/hHumidity 54%

Head to head

3–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-04-14StuttgartR16clayJessica Pegula6-1 6-1
2023-04-24MadridR64clayJessica Pegula7-6 6-3
2021-09-27Chicago 2R64hardJessica Pegula6-3 6-0
View full head-to-head →

Draw